2015年3月24日 星期二

金山軟件重點發展移動互聯網和云業務(十二)

網誌分類:股票經 |
網誌日期:2015-03-24

昨天,我參加了金山軟件(3888.HK)2014年全年業績公佈后的分析員會議,管理層在會上重點強調公司在移動互聯網(獵豹移動)和云業務(金山云)板塊的前景非常秀麗,并認為投資者嚴重低估了獵豹移動的價值!

過去幾個月,我趁金山短期的股價弱勢,在15-23港元買回大部份之前高位沽出的數量,現在持有的股票,我打算長期持有。


金山第四季度業績超預期,營業額10.72億元人民幣,按季增長26%,其中網游3.46億元人民幣,按季增長14%,獵豹5.82億元人民幣,按季增長30%,辦公軟件和云業務1.44億元人民幣,按季增長41%。經營利潤率回升至17.5%,凈利潤1.74億元人民幣。

看來公司的盈利和經營利潤率在去年第三季度應該已見底,未來將會慢慢回升。

毫無疑問,長遠來說,金山未來的增長引擎來自獵豹移動和金山云。

管理層說:獵豹移動今年底的目標移動月活躍客戶是6億(去年底3.95億),營業額將會翻倍,利潤率將會提升。

金山云業務在小米的支持下,加上已經打開了游戲營運商的缺口,未來的發展將會很快,公司預計未來三年將會投資10億美元在這個板塊。

雖然金山現時擁有凈現金42億元人民幣,但由於金山云需要龐大投資,我不排除公司未來募集資金的可能性。

4 則留言:

  1. Last nite KS Cloud announced that it would sell a stake to IDG and KS.

    How do you think about the KS Cloud valuation? Some say it is undervalued and hurts the benefit of the KS shareholders.

    Thanks

    Alfred

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    1. Dear Alfred,

      I am constructive on the news.

      Reasons:

      Valuation of KS Cloud = US$600 Mn (US$24 Mn for 3.98% stake)
      Book value of KS Cloud = Rmb200 Mn
      Valuation/book value = 19X
      And KS Cloud was still loss-making Rmb60 Mn in 2014.
      I think the valuation is fair at the first place.

      Secondly, Kingsoft will increase the stake in KS Cloud slightly from 52.1% to 52.3%. No dilution at all! The shareholder of Kingsoft will not be hurt.

      Thirdly, use other people money to expand in a capital intensive industry is a smart move, in my view. This will reduce the risk of Kingsoft and attract more institutional investors in the future.

      Fourth, IDG is a very famous private equity fund that is specialised in the technology sector. Participation of IDG is an endorsement of the outlook of KS Cloud, to a certain degree. I think spin off of KS Cloud for a separate listing in future years should be on its agenda.

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  2. 有小米和雷军,募集资金话咁易!
    早入股,估值会便宜一点,将来入股,股值一般都会比较高!看看小米的估值就知道!
    IDG肯定是early bird!

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  3. Thank you very much Benny.

    My view on this deal is positive too.

    I have invested on both KS and CMCM.

    KS 2014Q4 result surprised me. My most optimistic estimate was RMB 140m.

    The credit goes to Fu Sheng for leading CMCM fabulously.

    My estimate for KS in 2015 is that each quarter result would be surprising to the market consensus, given:

    1. strong performance and monetization of CMCM;
    2. boost from figures from 变身吧主公 (it was launched in last December and the major revenue comes in 2015Q1) and the launch of 3 more mobile games.

    One of my uncertainties for KS is the USD 1b Cloud capex.

    What do you think about the booking of it? And how it would impact on the balance sheet?

    Thanks much.

    Alfred

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