網誌分類：股票經 |
網誌日期：2013-10-15
廣汽(2238.HK)上周公佈2013年9月份汽車銷售數據，單月銷售94826輛，同比大幅標升91%（去年受「釣魚島」事件影響，基數很低），環比增長37%，超過分析員和我的預期，H股股價今天上漲近7%，收市報9.09港元！
今年1-9月廣汽總銷售667616輛，同比增長22%，高於乘用車行業14%的增長，表現強勁。增長來源主要是新合營公司菲亞特(Fiat)和三菱(Mitsubishi)的貢獻和自主品牌銷售的大幅改善（67918輛，同比增長72%，單月銷售8582輛）。當然，廣本銷售282442輛也不俗，同比增長15%。最弱的一環是廣豐，銷售217910輛，同比增長只有8%。
今年全年，我保守估計廣汽的總銷售應該可以超過930000輛（略低於管理層的目標100萬輛），同比增長超過30%，遠高於行業的增幅（約15%）。最重要的是，產能利用率將會從去年的53%增加到今年的69%，盈利率將會大大提升！
總的來說，我認為廣汽銷售復蘇的勢頭將會延續到明年和后年，盈利將會大幅增長，分析員現在的盈利預測很可能要提高，投資者不宜太早沽出她的股票，畢竟現價估值不貴，2014年和2015年預測市盈率只有12倍和10倍。
鍾兄有空的時候可否多寫一些文章呢?
回覆刪除很渴望閱讀鍾兄的文章.
那一方面您覺得好看的？
回覆刪除您讀我的文章目的何在？
由於全職的關系，我沒有太多時間寫微博，請見諒！
為了控制品質，我不會寫太多。
現在廣汽前景如何？現價8.85，是否低於它的內在價值？
回覆刪除請分享！鍾兄！
廣汽今年預測市盈率低於11倍，明年只有8倍（東風7倍、長城7倍、吉利7倍、華晨10倍），跟過去5年的平均9倍差不多，也跟同業差不多，我認為估值合理！傳統的汽車股一般PE都是單位數，因為盈利增長前景有限。
回覆刪除明年PE比今年低，意思即係？
刪除PE = 每股股價 / 每股盈利
即係明年每股盈利上升導致PE下降？那麽，股價呢？
鍾兄，廣汽2014年預測盈利約港幣0.618元，若2014預測pe低於11，那麽股價低於6.8才算是合理？Thx
回覆刪除0618 是人民币还是港币？
回覆刪除现在已过了大半年，投资者的焦点应该放在明年的估值，不要用倒后镜看公司的前景
每間大行的預測EPS都有差異，PHILIPS預測2014/2015，EPS 0.72/092 (人民幣), 市盈率約10/8倍，合理價是否約9元港幣？那麽，現價8.12，低於估值，對嗎？
刪除亦有留意，廣汽，未來盈利增長率比同業較為大吧！
廣汽目前的基本面，是否還有投資價值？你對廣汽的看法還是一樣？鐘兄很久都沒出廣汽的post
回覆刪除廣汽估值不貴，前景也不錯，我會繼續持有她的股票，當然我的首選是比亞迪！
回覆刪除廣汽回調中，但比丫迪，還在等待它另一次的回調，現價感覺危險
刪除同意，無需要高追比亞迪
回覆刪除最近在閱讀你介紹的 The five rules for successful stock investing，內容由淺入深，利用Dell 和 HP作例子，令讀者更易明白balance sheet, income statement and cash flow，不過有些chapter還真的需要停下來，慢慢思考，目前看到chapter 9 估值，開始有點confused，投機者所賺的是市盈率增長，意思是否因股價被推高，每股盈利不變下，市盈率就相對增大？
刪除PS: 這本書好難找，終於在PAGE ONE 商店找到，非常感謝您的推介，其實要是對書中有不明白，能否在這或其他途徑，請教鐘兄？
Review
刪除Not long ago, MagicDiligence reviewed Mary Buffett and David Clark's Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statem...... and concluded that, while possibly useful for beginners, experienced stock investors would dismiss the book as simplistic and adding nothing new. The review also mentioned that a good alternative for more experienced investors looking to add to their knowledge is Pat Dorsey's The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing.
Today we'll take a look at that book. The author, Pat Dorsey, is currently the Director of Equity Research for Morningstar. Morningstar has historically been known for their 5-star scale of mutual fund ratings, but several years ago began applying the same scale to individual stocks. Since Morningstar's focus is on durable competitive advantage, the firm's investing philosophy correlates very well with that of the Magic Formula and of MagicDiligence. That makes the book particularly relevant and much of my stock analysis is based on techniques outlined in it. The Five Rules... is more or less a two part book. The first half deals covers the title, laying out the five rules for successful investing and then proceeding to expand on each of them. Without spoiling too much of the book, Dorsey's five rules are:
1) Do your homework.
2) Find economic moats.
3) Have a margin of safety.
4) Hold for the long haul.
5) Know when to sell.
This first section then continues on to introduce the investor to the techniques of stock analysis. Topics covered include detailed explanations of each financial statement, the points of emphasis to look for in a good investment (such as growth potential and financial health), how to spot accounting blowups before they happen, how to value a stock, and so forth. For everyone interested in stock analysis, from 10 year pros to those just beginning to dip their toes in the market, these chapters contain invaluable and vital information. Nearly every investor will learn something new about evaluating companies and valuing stocks. One particularly valuable chapter is titled "The 10-Minute Test", which will help you quickly throw out stocks that are not worth your time, while highlighting investment opportunities that warrant additional research.
The second half of the book is equally useful. In this section, Dorsey calls upon Morningstar's sector analysts to lay out the intrinsic moat qualities and the factors that separate good and bad companies in a variety of sectors, including Health Care, Consumer Services, Media, Banks, and so on. It's no secret to MagicDiligence Members that some industries are inherently better investment hunting grounds than others, and this book explains why. For example, retail is generally a difficult place to invest - there are no customer switching costs, tons of competition, and constantly changing consumer trends. On the other hand, most medical device makers have very high switching costs, as surgeons are trained on one company's products and are loathe to learn the intricacies of a competing product, unless there is a very good reason to do so.
To close this review, a personal observation. Most investors routinely cite classic investing books like Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor as the place to start for novice investors. I respectfully disagree. I've read many of those great classics, but no one book has explained the details of company and equity analysis as directly or relevantly as this book. This is one of the most overlooked investing books out there, and comes highly recommended to all investors. -The Motley Fool
From the Inside Flap
刪除Stocks can be the perfect vehicle for your investment journey–if you know how to pick them. With Morningstar’s unparalleled guidance you can get the story behind the numbers and learn how to invest in stocks with care and confidence.
In The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing, Pat Dorsey, Director of Stock Analysis for Morningstar, Inc., helps today’s investors learn from the mistakes of the past in order to lay a solid foundation for future success. According to Mr. Dorsey, "Investment success depends on personal discipline, not on whether the crowd agrees or disagrees with you." In a highly accessible and down-to-earth style, Dorsey helps even novice investors understand how to evaluate companies and achieve success by buying stocks at a discount of their true worth.
Reading The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing is like joining a community of fellow investors who want to better understand how stocks operate, avoid the common pitfalls of investing, and build strong stock portfolios they can be confident in. Dorsey and his team of stock analysts will open investors’ eyes to a wealth of investment opportunities that exist regardless of market conditions, as they learn:
How to develop a feel for what makes a company profitable
How to find great companies with a competitive advantage
How to make sure a company’s management team is on their side
How to recognize red flags that can cause blow-ups in a portfolio
How to apply proven valuation principles to improve results
And how to apply a 10-Minute Test to any stock in order to determine if it’s worth investigating in more detail
A complete investment guide for people who are serious about mastering stock strategies, The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing outlines the rigorous process through which Morningstar evaluates stocks, providing readers with tried-and-true tools for selecting stocks that will make promising long-term investments–and perhaps more important–avoiding those that won’t.
In today’s economic climate, The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing has something to offer every investor. Seasoned investors will welcome the kind of sound, reliable advice that can help them avoid the mistakes of the past, while novice investors will find the kind of "on-ramp" introduction they need to get moving along the road to better investment results. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.
投機的意思是不理會估值的高低，高價買入后希望短期以更高價賣出獲利。
回覆刪除假如盈利預測不變，當股價被投機者大幅炒高，預測PE便會上升，高到某個程度便很有可能出現泡沫，投資者便要小心接火棒
"the investment return is the appreciation of a stock because of its dividend yield and subsequent earnings growth, whereas the speculative return comes from the impact of changes in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio." - p.126
刪除投機的return是從PE ratio改變而來，簡單來說，就是從股價波動而來，就像鍾兄以上所說的？
可是，我一直有個疑問：
計算2015預測PE是否用 1)每股股價 和 2)2015年預測每股盈利？如果是，我理解若盈利是每年增長的trend，可預測明年的，但股價是不能被預測，那分析員計算2015預測PE是否假設現價不變，再除以2015預測每股盈利？
有時，我會用分析員的 (2015預測PE x 2015每股盈利) 來計算 每股股價，那是否低於這每股股價就是明年的合理價？假設：廣汽2015預測PE為10倍，預測每股盈利為0.9港元，那麼，明年的合理價應為10*0.9，即為9元，所以若基本面沒變，理論上，低於8元以下也算是買在合理價內嗎？？
假如PE不变，当明年EPS增加10%，未来12个月的股价理应上升10%，再加股息！
刪除对！广汽现价是7.7港元，明年预测EPS是0.9港元，2015年预测PE是8.6倍！
假如你认为广汽明年的合理PE是10倍（参考公司过去的PE区间和未来盈利前景，不同的分析员会有不同的看法），那麽，明年的目标价便是9港元（0.9*10），比现价有17%上升空间！
目标价 = 目标PE * 预测EPS
有两个变数：目标PE和预测EPS
预测EPS可以参考分析员的预测，也可以自己估计！
目标PE要参考公司过去的PE区间和未来盈利前景！
1. 目標PE若是用未來盈利前景，那是否用“現價“除以“我所預測每股盈利“？可是，說不定我拿的現價，可能已很高，那就會影響到我計算的PE? 所以，“每股股價" 要怎取捨？
刪除2. 若以你所說：2015預測EPS 0.9，2015預測PE 8.6倍，目標價 7.7，若考慮margin of safety 假設15%，那就是說如果低於 6.6 (=7.7*(1-15%))才是我要買入的價位，是嗎？不過，我在7.9/8.2買入了，margin of safety 可以說沒有 (╯з╰)
3. 當股價上升到目標價，我們還是需要再重新考慮公司的前景，是否對之前所訂的目標價有所改變，才決定是否被高估，而賣出手持的股票！
THANKS
目标PE是指未来合理的PE，乘以未来的EPS，便是合理价或目标价，跟现价比较，看看现价是否远远低於合理价或目标价，即margin of safety！
回覆刪除7.7 是现价，不是目标价，合理价或目标价应该是9港元，margin of safety 是1.3！如过要30%margin of safety, 买人价应该是6.3！
目标PE要参考公司过去的PE区间和未来盈利前景！
刪除應如何利用未來盈利前景找出目標PE？MANY THANKS
公司未來前景包括很多因素，例如行業的增長、行業的競爭情況、入門門檻和公司的競爭優勢等。
刪除未來盈利增長愈高，目標PE理應愈高，但目標PE不應該超過公司的盈利增長預測，即PEG最高少於1！但必須留意，目標PE最好不要超過30倍，因為很少公司的長期盈利增長可以維持超過30%！
緊記：投資是一門藝術，不完全是科學，每個投資者對公司的前景都會有不同的看法和判斷，不然股票便沒有成交了！
明白了，就是PEG，同時又增長知識！會好好的記牢
刪除廣汽第三季業績按年純利倒退，但營收增加，而成本/支出增大，用於擴大產能/研發等，短期借款大增4倍因向銀行借款償還中期票據。目前來看，好像也不算差，全國汽車銷量也下降，而不只是廣汽！
回覆刪除某些大行，因純利下降，而下調目標價7.3-8元不等。
請問鍾sir對廣汽看法是？比丫迪1211，長汽2333 汽車股两天都上漲了7~8%，但廣汽由今年七月的最高價位10.94，下跌了36%，至今天的6.97。
廣汽3季度業績差過分析員的預期！股價短期表現一般，我不建議加碼買入！
回覆刪除那麽，7-8元買入的，是否繼續持有？
刪除建議持有
回覆刪除廣汽2014年業績一般，今年首3月汽車銷售244,554輛，同比增長只有4.6%，表現不算突出。
回覆刪除現價8.7港元，預測今年市盈率約11倍，明年9倍，跟過去平均10倍差不多，建議持有！
我認為公司未來主要的催化劑是今明兩年廣汽飛亞特克萊斯勒(GAC Fiat Chrysler)將會推出三款Jeep品牌的SUV,2017年起將會對業績有刺激作用！
謝謝分享，我會繼續持有，但10元應要減持？
刪除為何廣汽AH股股價相差那麼大？
回覆刪除A股：16.41
H月：4.94
廣汽出業績，用報告的數據計算後得出的資料是A股還是H股的？
在啥麽情況下才能比較AH股？謝謝鍾兄分享。
不同的市場當然有不同的價格！
刪除A股股民著重故事多於估值，所以一般來說A股股價都會高於H股！
除非A股和H股的股票互通，否則不能做套利(arbitrage),在低價的市場買入，在高價的市場沽出，她們的差價永遠存在！
權益一樣，作為價值投資者，當然應該選便宜的市場來買，即是H股。
無論A股或H股的股東，都是看同一份的財務報告！
廣汽中期純利17.5億元人民幣，同比增長2%，但扣除政府補貼，核心利潤只有13.2億，同比下跌21%，業績跟分析員預期差不多！
刪除今天股價4.71港元接近5年低位了，現價的估值如何？
廣汽的總發行股數（A股加H股）= 64.35億
H股股價 = 4.8港元
市值 = 309億港元
假設2015下半年核心盈利=上半年，
全年純利 = 13.2億 * 2 = 26.4億元人民幣 = 32億港元
市盈率 = 9.7倍（309/32）
股東權益 = 366億元人民幣 = 每股5.69元人民幣 = 每股6.88港元
P/B = 0.7倍 （5年新低）
財務方面，凈現金20億元人民幣，非常健康。
總的來說，現價估值已偏低，不宜沽出！建議繼續持有。
謝謝你對AH之分別作解釋！但豈不是同一間公司，AH股有不同股價，就有两個市值？
刪除當你計算市值時，市值=H股股價x 總發行股數(A+H)，為何用A+H股數呢？
以上的估值，是對H股還是A股？還是同時對A及H股都可以？
有空的話，我會再研究一下以上的估值，有不明白再請教你！謝謝
我用(A+H)的總發行股數來計算總市值是因為我想計算以H股股價4.8港元買入整家公司是否合算?
刪除以上的估值當然是針對H股！
如果要計算A股的估值是否合理，可以這樣計算：
A股股價=18.1元人民幣
市值 = 1165億元人民幣 （64.35*18.1）
全年純利 = 13.2億 * 2 = 26.4億元人民幣
市盈率 = 44倍（1165/26.4）
A股估值明顯很貴！
較正統的方法計算市盈率如下：
全年純利 = 13.2億 * 2 = 26.4億元人民幣
每股盈利 = 0.41元人民幣（26.4 / 63.35）= 0.50港元
H股股價 = 4.8港元
H股市盈率 = 9.6 倍 （4.8 / 0.5）
A股股價 = 18.1元人民幣
A股市盈率 = 44倍 （18.1 / 0.41）
兩個不同的方法，計算出來的市盈率都是一樣的。