tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post4145567045078089798..comments2024-03-10T11:10:02.660+08:00Comments on 股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道: 中國人壽估值偏低(五)股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-76063569790716601052021-03-24T18:38:46.223+08:002021-03-24T18:38:46.223+08:00Choco:很好,加油!Choco:很好,加油!股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-52267757809522378422021-03-15T22:12:47.524+08:002021-03-15T22:12:47.524+08:00好的謝謝! 感謝鍾sir的回覆和tips,我會繼續努力 :)好的謝謝! 感謝鍾sir的回覆和tips,我會繼續努力 :)Choco Wongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-2788457796909889642021-03-15T17:31:28.431+08:002021-03-15T17:31:28.431+08:00Choco:方法大致上正確。但要小心價值陷阱,因為近幾年中國人壽的股價都是長期遠低於它的內涵價值。Choco:方法大致上正確。但要小心價值陷阱,因為近幾年中國人壽的股價都是長期遠低於它的內涵價值。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-4859277629438454012021-03-08T16:55:30.193+08:002021-03-08T16:55:30.193+08:00鍾sir 你好!我最近對中國人壽有興趣,並根據你以上的方式作出估值。我得出的經調整每股評估價值= 4...鍾sir 你好!我最近對中國人壽有興趣,並根據你以上的方式作出估值。我得出的經調整每股評估價值= 45.2港元。請問我的計算正確嗎? 你認為值得入股嗎?<br /><br />期待您的回覆!<br /><br /><br />• Adjusted Net Worth: 520153<br />• Value of In-Force Business after Cost of Required Capital: 495704<br />Embedded value= 1015856 <br />• Net investment yield: 4.29%<br />• Sensitivity results: <br />o Value of In-Force Business after Cost of Required Capital: 495704* (1-36%); if investment returns decrease by 100bps (1%)= 317250<br />Adjusted embedded value= 5202+3173=8375億<br />No. outstanding stocks (發行股數)=282.64億股<br />每股內涵價值=29.6元人民幣(8375/282.6)=35.3港元(1人民幣=1.19港元)<br />P/EV = 0.46倍(Current price: 16.5/29.6)<br /><br />經調整後的新業務價值=235.5億元人民幣(368*(1-36%))<br /><br />每股新業務價值0.83元人民幣,相等於0.99港元,給予10倍的估值,得出未來新保單業務的價值約9.9港元。<br /><br />經調整每股評估價值AV = EV + NBV * Multiple<br />= 45.2港元(35.3+9.9)<br /><br /><br />Choco Wongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-17838977573182335532016-11-29T12:55:41.462+08:002016-11-29T12:55:41.462+08:00謝謝匿名兄的推薦。的確,我會在基礎投資課程的第四堂教授如何評估保險股的內在價值。謝謝匿名兄的推薦。的確,我會在基礎投資課程的第四堂教授如何評估保險股的內在價值。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-80172590640337895772016-11-29T12:54:02.867+08:002016-11-29T12:54:02.867+08:00Erick兄:NBV Multiple 跟公司未來的NBV增長率有關,類似PEG概念,增長越高,Mu...Erick兄:NBV Multiple 跟公司未來的NBV增長率有關,類似PEG概念,增長越高,Multiple越高。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-61713027737264583732016-11-29T12:06:02.227+08:002016-11-29T12:06:02.227+08:00你問邊種multiple ? P/e , ev/ebitda ?
提議你報第四班你問邊種multiple ? P/e , ev/ebitda ?<br /><br />提議你報第四班Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-5316215939850004672016-11-29T11:05:24.139+08:002016-11-29T11:05:24.139+08:00May I ask how the multiple be defined and what is ...May I ask how the multiple be defined and what is the value of multiple shall we used? ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04440747508983923905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-9182560175674235022016-11-29T10:53:28.703+08:002016-11-29T10:53:28.703+08:00Thank you.
Thank you.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04440747508983923905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-82952273437423356852016-10-09T20:38:41.066+08:002016-10-09T20:38:41.066+08:00鍾兄:論基本面,平保會高於中國人壽。鍾兄:論基本面,平保會高於中國人壽。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-76507182065239797072016-10-09T11:08:43.386+08:002016-10-09T11:08:43.386+08:00鍾sir,拜讀了閣下的書後,對初進股市的我有了很大的啟發,尤其在估值上易學難精,中人壽估值真的偏低,...鍾sir,拜讀了閣下的書後,對初進股市的我有了很大的啟發,尤其在估值上易學難精,中人壽估值真的偏低,我覺得主要是市場覺得其業務不夠平保多元化,而且多年來少大幅改革,不過都是國企通病。但我覺得中人壽未來可更進一步,因為它買進廣發銀行,是少見的行動,不過其協同效應都需要數年呈現。所以,我還是偏好平保。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-28618576322332461092016-09-10T09:58:06.688+08:002016-09-10T09:58:06.688+08:00我會繼續持有!我會繼續持有!股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-38511398333497349772016-09-09T10:40:36.469+08:002016-09-09T10:40:36.469+08:00現在已經21.6, 持續向好現在已經21.6, 持續向好Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-71661295735863294912016-08-29T10:17:55.418+08:002016-08-29T10:17:55.418+08:00投資是自己的事,還是自己決定吧。投資是自己的事,還是自己決定吧。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-26110694503472243172016-08-29T00:39:51.823+08:002016-08-29T00:39:51.823+08:00鐘Sir, 請問2628現價$19.08值得買入嗎?鐘Sir, 請問2628現價$19.08值得買入嗎?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-11483277162279633632016-08-28T22:19:26.783+08:002016-08-28T22:19:26.783+08:00說實話,我不知道未來一個月中國人壽目標價會幾多,因為短期股市是投票機器。但長遠來說,公司的股價應該會...說實話,我不知道未來一個月中國人壽目標價會幾多,因為短期股市是投票機器。但長遠來說,公司的股價應該會走向它的真正價值。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-51972179754733089092016-08-28T21:45:39.032+08:002016-08-28T21:45:39.032+08:00鍾記只會用現有資料計算合理估值,去唔去到估值或几時去到估值,只有天知鍾記只會用現有資料計算合理估值,去唔去到估值或几時去到估值,只有天知Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-66275244169399793452016-08-28T17:04:58.841+08:002016-08-28T17:04:58.841+08:00鐘Sir, 中國人壽公佈業績後多間大行都睇好... 請問鐘Sir你睇未來一個月中國人壽目標價會幾多呢...鐘Sir, 中國人壽公佈業績後多間大行都睇好... 請問鐘Sir你睇未來一個月中國人壽目標價會幾多呢?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-61820209513677224952016-08-28T12:29:11.475+08:002016-08-28T12:29:11.475+08:00沙梨:如果能夠對估值有多一點的理解,可能會對股票買賣策略有一定的幫助。祝好運!
沙梨:如果能夠對估值有多一點的理解,可能會對股票買賣策略有一定的幫助。祝好運!<br />股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-6233218647234146572016-08-28T12:23:38.704+08:002016-08-28T12:23:38.704+08:00大家理性交流,互相得益。大家理性交流,互相得益。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-54020189176078185052016-08-27T23:21:34.987+08:002016-08-27T23:21:34.987+08:00講得出CKM001,一定是老手,大家有空交流下講得出CKM001,一定是老手,大家有空交流下狗股小子https://www.blogger.com/profile/09157066196421309514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-27290825846648384882016-08-27T21:48:30.042+08:002016-08-27T21:48:30.042+08:00鍾兄,多謝你的意見。
估值是否過高,我唔識計!
但我對公司前景有信心,加上佔股票組合比重不到10%....鍾兄,多謝你的意見。<br />估值是否過高,我唔識計!<br />但我對公司前景有信心,加上佔股票組合比重不到10%....所以決定hold tight :D沙梨https://www.blogger.com/profile/04661605040295765024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-13911376384511976022016-08-27T21:06:08.505+08:002016-08-27T21:06:08.505+08:00瑞房(272)是價值陷阱,我都上了寶貴的一課,哈哈!瑞房(272)是價值陷阱,我都上了寶貴的一課,哈哈!股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-83471984397732019462016-08-27T19:56:30.718+08:002016-08-27T19:56:30.718+08:00股市兇險,投資旅程,睇錯買錯係必定有發生,如果呢杯茶唔啱,換過杯.鍾記也買錯左睡房股市兇險,投資旅程,睇錯買錯係必定有發生,如果呢杯茶唔啱,換過杯.鍾記也買錯左睡房Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-26155451875410560702016-08-27T19:07:39.826+08:002016-08-27T19:07:39.826+08:00估值偏低可能會提供投資機會,但如果公司的基本面真的很差,也有可能是價值陷阱。估值偏低可能會提供投資機會,但如果公司的基本面真的很差,也有可能是價值陷阱。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com