tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post1259494424531478577..comments2024-03-10T11:10:02.660+08:00Comments on 股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道: 港交所受惠內地基金買港股(五)股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-53294660362929060432017-11-24T09:22:48.883+08:002017-11-24T09:22:48.883+08:00Sam:不客氣。加油!Sam:不客氣。加油!股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-28927137984234384512017-11-23T09:41:40.687+08:002017-11-23T09:41:40.687+08:00對於一眾不慣翻閱年報的小投資者如小弟,即使已花了點時間去閱讀,但要從一本厚厚的年報上抽出有用的資料及...對於一眾不慣翻閱年報的小投資者如小弟,即使已花了點時間去閱讀,但要從一本厚厚的年報上抽出有用的資料及數據作分析,從來都不是一件容易的事。<br /><br />再次多謝鍾老師的無私指導。<br /><br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-72872524672721152772017-11-22T21:55:04.783+08:002017-11-22T21:55:04.783+08:00Sam:2013年年報第62頁提到:「股東應佔溢利由2012年的40.84億元增加11%(4.68億...Sam:2013年年報第62頁提到:「股東應佔溢利由2012年的40.84億元增加11%(4.68億元)至2013年的45.52億元。此增幅大部分源自2012年12月購入的LME業務於2013年的全年溢利3.26億元(2012年:1,900萬元)。」<br /><br />2014年年報第52頁分部業績顯示商品業務稅前盈利3.84億港元。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-73550302567183970812017-11-22T15:51:37.107+08:002017-11-22T15:51:37.107+08:00鍾老師, 您好。
近日港股交投漸趨活躍,而香港交易所 (#388) 的股價亦隨著成交上升而水漲船高...鍾老師, 您好。<br /><br />近日港股交投漸趨活躍,而香港交易所 (#388) 的股價亦隨著成交上升而水漲船高,連日更迭創五十二週新高。小弟遂找來鍾老師這篇網誌作為藍本,欲效法鍾老師為港交所再作估值,本來以為是一個簡單的運算,惟在分析數據時卻遇到困難。<br /><br />鍾老師將港交所列在綜合收益表中的 51.6 億稅後盈利以地區作分拆,即香港佔 48 億,倫敦 LME 佔餘下的 3 億,惟當小弟翻閱港交所的 2014 年年報時,卻發覺它在財務報表附註 4 的營運分部並非以地區作劃分,未知鍾老師那時是如何把那 51.6 億的稅後盈利以地區作分拆,盼鍾老師作出指導,謝謝。<br /><br />SamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-82330390252136378382015-04-17T20:53:52.301+08:002015-04-17T20:53:52.301+08:00夜期期指大跌,星期一應該也會跌多,加上“秋官效應“,一定會震走不少散戶,好在沒有高追,持有的股票在合...夜期期指大跌,星期一應該也會跌多,加上“秋官效應“,一定會震走不少散戶,好在沒有高追,持有的股票在合理估值範圍內!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-75332024243201307272015-04-14T21:34:16.546+08:002015-04-14T21:34:16.546+08:00当然感受到,所以我都很恐惧!毕竟最后能赚钱的都是少数!当然感受到,所以我都很恐惧!毕竟最后能赚钱的都是少数!鍾記noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-33196657888701994652015-04-14T21:06:28.027+08:002015-04-14T21:06:28.027+08:00如果每個股民都能向鍾兄學習,那就可以大大降低投資風險,現時我相信有不少股民,只听從評論員的評論,哪隻...如果每個股民都能向鍾兄學習,那就可以大大降低投資風險,現時我相信有不少股民,只听從評論員的評論,哪隻AH折讓大,哪隻被低估等而高追買入,如果股市突如其來的大跌,不敢想像有多少人會輸身家!在街上,身邊的同事,從不討論股票,但這幾天卻全民講股買入。鍾兄,是否也感受到呢?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-45329952078554120232015-04-13T22:35:53.473+08:002015-04-13T22:35:53.473+08:00280港元以上的港交所已经反映了日均成交量1600亿港元和市盈率28倍的估值!我认为估值有点贵,所以...280港元以上的港交所已经反映了日均成交量1600亿港元和市盈率28倍的估值!我认为估值有点贵,所以如果港交所的股价持续大幅攀升,我会考虑分段减持!<br /><br />点解要减持?<br />大牛市中,成交当然很畅旺(近几天港股日均成交超过2500亿港元),问题是:一旦调整出现,这麽高的成交量能否维持? 我有怀疑!<br /><br /><br />鍾記noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-64570046729151924322015-04-13T21:29:04.141+08:002015-04-13T21:29:04.141+08:00鍾兄, 難道連年多年的功力,信念都會為此而動搖?鍾兄, 難道連年多年的功力,信念都會為此而動搖?invest Your Lifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14338363981490417426noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-62015116548695004932015-04-13T20:03:41.163+08:002015-04-13T20:03:41.163+08:00今天在280港元以上再减持了一部份港交所,坚持自己订下的策略,未知未来可否低位买回?今天在280港元以上再减持了一部份港交所,坚持自己订下的策略,未知未来可否低位买回?鍾記noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-88970301540135283902015-03-31T11:13:21.108+08:002015-03-31T11:13:21.108+08:00Last year, HKEX made a net profit of HK$5.16 Bn, o...Last year, HKEX made a net profit of HK$5.16 Bn, of which HK contributed about HK$4.8 Bn (with an average daily turnover ADT of HK$69.5 Bn) and LME contributed about HK$300 Mn.<br /><br />This year, I expect the profit contribution from LME will increase to about HK$1.1 Bn, thanks to a 34% increase in tariff effective Jan 1, 2015 and the full year contribution from LME Clear (launched on Sep 22, 2014). <br /><br />Assuming ADT of HK$120 Bn, profit from HK will increase to HK$8.3 Bn (4.8*120/69.5) = Net profit in 2014 * (ADT in 2015 / ADT in 2014).<br /><br />Therefore, total profit of HKEX in 2015 = HK profit + LME profit<br />= HK$8.3 Bn + HK$1.1 Bn<br />= HK$9.4 Bn<br /><br />EPS = HK$9.4 Bn / 1168 Mn shares = HK$8.05<br /><br />Target price = 28X PE = 28*8.05 = HK$226<br /><br />Same method to derive the target price assuming ADT = HK$140 Bn <br /><br />Hope you understand. 鍾記noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-81963776257802497572015-03-31T10:48:00.271+08:002015-03-31T10:48:00.271+08:00193港元以上買入安全網(margin of safety)不夠,不建議高追! 193港元以上買入安全網(margin of safety)不夠,不建議高追! 鍾記noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-12207535741980188602015-03-31T03:41:44.907+08:002015-03-31T03:41:44.907+08:00Hi Benny,
It would be appreciated if you could sh...Hi Benny,<br /><br />It would be appreciated if you could share how to calculate the target price (226/ 268) by using the amount of transaction (1200/ 1400) and P/E ratio (28). Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-34750858007375675352015-03-30T21:31:02.146+08:002015-03-30T21:31:02.146+08:00但此價位買入,風險大嗎?謝謝但此價位買入,風險大嗎?謝謝Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com