tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14918091233989797392024-03-18T11:03:27.737+08:00股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道筆者常常參考股神畢菲特的價值投資哲學和心法,應用於港股,長期的回報不錯,現希望通過本網誌,跟大家分享個人的投資心得。
股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comBlogger800125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-30801030492221120742024-03-03T12:48:00.004+08:002024-03-03T12:48:26.830+08:00友邦保險估值稍為偏低(十四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股<span lang="EN-US">票<span lang="EN-US">經</span></span></span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我利用友邦保險(<span lang="EN-US">1299</span>)<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年中期業績和第三季新業務摘要所提供的財務數據,更新其估值,得出每股評估價值(<span lang="EN-US">AV</span>)為<span lang="EN-US">80.6</span>港元。現價<span lang="EN-US">62.55</span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1</span>日),較評估價值折讓<span lang="EN-US">22%</span>,估值稍為偏低。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">友邦保險的估值計算方法:</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">發行股數<span lang="EN-US"> = 115.51</span>億(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">內涵價值權益<span lang="EN-US"> EV = 706</span>億美元(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股<span lang="EN-US">EV = 706</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">115.51</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 6.11</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">美元<span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 47.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>美元兌<span lang="EN-US">7.82</span>港元)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> = 62.55</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2024</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">P/EV = 62.55</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">47.8 = 1.31</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(以實質匯率計算)</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2011</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">9.3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2012</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">11.9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+27%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2013<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">14.9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+25%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2014<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">18.4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+24%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2015</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">22.0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+19%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2016 </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">27.5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+25%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2017</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">35.1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+28%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2018</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">39.6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+23%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2019</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">41.5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">27.7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-33%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">33.7</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+22%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">30.9</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-8%</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年(預測)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">40.3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> +30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年複合增長率(<span lang="EN-US">CAGR </span>)(<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>至<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年)<span lang="EN-US">= 13%</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">CAGR = </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">〔(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">40.3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">9.3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">^</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)〕</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">- 1<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(億美元)</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2020</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2021</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2022</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2023</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增長(<span lang="EN-US">%</span>)</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1Q </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8.41 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">10.52 8.53 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> 10.46 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-18%</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5.69<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.62<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6.83<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> 9.83<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-10%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.06<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.35<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.41<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>9.94 <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">+1%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6.49<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8.17<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>8.15<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">全年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>27.65<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>33.66<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>30.92<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年首三季<span lang="EN-US">NBV = 30.23</span>億美元(<span lang="EN-US">+33%</span>)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年年化</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV = 30.23 x</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>=
40.31</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年<span lang="EN-US">NBV</span>沒有增長 <span lang="EN-US">= 40.31
x (1</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">+</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0%)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 40.31</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元 <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股 <span lang="EN-US">0.349</span>美元 (<span lang="EN-US">40.31</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">115.51</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股<span lang="EN-US"> 2.73</span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>美元兌<span lang="EN-US">7.82</span>港元)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV Multiple = 12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍(由於</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增長放緩,我把其</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Multiple</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設從以往的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">15</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍調低至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">AV = EV + NBV x Multiple</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 47.8 + 2.73 x 12<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 47.8 + 32.8<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 80.6 </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">62.55</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元(<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">1</span>日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">P/AV =
</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">62.55</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷<span lang="EN-US">8</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0.6</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">= 0.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">78</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資者也可以運用逆向工程(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Reverse Engineering</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)的計算方式,倒推友邦保險的股價</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">62.55</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元,究竟反映多少的</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV Multiple</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">M</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">62.55 = 47.8 + 2.73 x M</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">14.75 = 2.73 x M<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">M = 5.4</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">觀乎友邦保險的質素和<span lang="EN-US">NBV</span>增長能力,只有<span lang="EN-US">5.4</span>倍的<span lang="EN-US">NBV
Multiple</span>便顯得有點偏低了。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-82406948874327342972024-01-07T12:15:00.005+08:002024-01-07T12:15:59.441+08:00活道「2024年上半年每月投資理財班」第一堂隨筆<p><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2024-01-07<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2024</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">5</span>日傍晚,我懷著期盼的心情乘坐港鐵到油麻地活道教育中心,進行</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">「</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="https://www.livingword.edu.hk/2023/09/%e9%99%b3%e8%82%87%e8%b3%a2-%e9%8d%be%e8%a8%98-%e6%9d%8e%e6%85%a7%e7%be%a4-%e6%af%8f%e6%9c%88-%e9%9a%94%e6%9c%88%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%90%86%e8%b2%a1%e8%ac%9b%e5%ba%a7-2024%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%8a/">2024</a></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="https://www.livingword.edu.hk/2023/09/%e9%99%b3%e8%82%87%e8%b3%a2-%e9%8d%be%e8%a8%98-%e6%9d%8e%e6%85%a7%e7%be%a4-%e6%af%8f%e6%9c%88-%e9%9a%94%e6%9c%88%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%90%86%e8%b2%a1%e8%ac%9b%e5%ba%a7-2024%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%8a/">年上半年每月投資理財班<span lang="EN-US">------</span>股票價值投資法</a>」第一個課堂。因為疫情的關係,我接近一年都沒有跟學員見面了。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股持續下跌了四年,在漫長的熊市中,不少投資者心死,放棄了港股。有內地網民更揶揄香港已經變成「國際金融中心遺址」,在這個時期,難得還有一些學員報讀我的投資理財班,實在感恩。雖然參與現場班的人數不多,我還是盡心講解,十分享受跟在場的學員互動交流,過了一個輕鬆愉快的晚上。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">課堂前,我問現場的學員為何選擇在港股一潭死水的時候還報讀投資課程?其中一位學員這樣回答:「正是因為港股低迷,才較容易執行價值投資,更容易找到具有安全邊際的優質股。如果股市暢旺,很難有機會以便宜的價格買入優質股票。我希望趁股市下跌這段時期,學好如何計算公司的估值或內在價值,避開短期的市場雜音,增強自己入市的信心。</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">有另外一位學員表示上了我的課堂幾年,並儲齊我的六本書,今天仍然努力學習價值投資。她說每次上我的課程都有得著,對價值投資有更深的體會。有這樣的忠實粉絲</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我真的很開心</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股經歷了四年的跌市,恆生指數從<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年底的<span lang="EN-US">28,189</span>點,下跌至上周五(<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">5</span>日)的<span lang="EN-US">16,535</span>點,累積跌幅為<span lang="EN-US">41%</span>,倘若從<span lang="EN-US">2018</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月的歷史高位<span lang="EN-US">33,500</span>年計算,累積跌幅達<span lang="EN-US">51%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股目前估值處於偏低的水平,<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年預測市盈率只有約<span lang="EN-US">8</span>倍,有人視之為投資機會,正如著名基金經理<span lang="EN-US">Sir John Templeton</span>所言</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">「</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">在市場恐慌及情緒極度悲觀的時候,往往是最佳買入的時機</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">」</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。但卻有人提醒可能是價值陷阱,因為中港股票市場出現了結構性改變,負面因素眾多,例如加息令利率高企、美國極力打壓中國的科技發展、中國經濟增長放緩、內房爆煲、企業盈利增長前景欠佳等,導致港股遭受估值降級的命運。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">不同的觀點與角度,得出不同的投資決定,最後誰對誰錯,要留待時間去證明。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">無論如何,新的一年,我祝願世界和平,網友平安喜樂,更希望價值投資者堅持投資框架,不被市場上的負面情緒所侵蝕。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4KETfu8kMTYaZksD4VMjFD1DLCBANOyv25VTxkd-vTf8drYT4BRLLG8zsZSaF4CR196BQ3pNHnPGQoDSQhwj67XYKNbMJ3OhKg1HVKQxx57oncwzEyWWLnrTnv9fVCHU_UxqHTBJe3RXR9ZZbwrDDbpZHqQxUtZf8XSqyjAt6She-ODz9zifZOsAdH5Y/s1600/IMG-20231117-WA0000.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1131" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4KETfu8kMTYaZksD4VMjFD1DLCBANOyv25VTxkd-vTf8drYT4BRLLG8zsZSaF4CR196BQ3pNHnPGQoDSQhwj67XYKNbMJ3OhKg1HVKQxx57oncwzEyWWLnrTnv9fVCHU_UxqHTBJe3RXR9ZZbwrDDbpZHqQxUtZf8XSqyjAt6She-ODz9zifZOsAdH5Y/s320/IMG-20231117-WA0000.jpg" width="226" /></a></b></div><b><br /><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b><p></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com58tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-45071367141892513172023-10-09T12:23:00.009+08:002023-10-09T12:33:25.930+08:00當好友都轉為悲觀的時候<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="color: #666666; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="color: #666666; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-10-0</span></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">9<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">上月初,看過「星級分析員」陸東在某財經雜誌的獨家專訪,他並不看好港股的前景,認為當前經濟出現結構性問題,料港股只會有反彈無復甦,並坦言留學回港差不多四十年,未試過像現在這麽悲觀!不少股票跌至只有<span lang="EN-US">0.3</span>倍市賬率,甚至更低,連他都不是很敢買。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">當向來是以大好友見稱的著名分析員都轉為極度悲觀時,這反映了甚麼?也許在漫長的熊市肆虐下,市場情緒已經跌落至低點吧。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">在眾多負面消息充斥下,包括中美關係惡化、利息高企、中國經濟復甦乏力、內房債務危機、企業盈利增長下調等,縱使港股估值低迷,也未能吸引投資者入市,主要是因為他們對股市前景缺乏信心。投資信心何時會重返?這大概需要一些催化劑,例如中美關係改善、美國通脹壓力緩和令息口見頂回落、中國經濟回復增長動力、內地房地產市場回穩及企業盈利回升等。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">有危便有機。相信不少價值投資者都知道「低買」是投資獲利的最佳途徑。「低買」的機會何時會出現?通常都是市場上風雨飄搖、信心盡失,大部分投資者都說要避開股票的時候。當市場情緒悲觀時,不少優質公司的股票都會被拋售,價值都會被低估。現階段投資者是否有膽量去檢便宜貨?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">恆生指數已經從<span lang="EN-US">2018</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月歷史高位約<span lang="EN-US">33500</span>點,下跌至上周五(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">6</span>日)的<span lang="EN-US">17485</span>點,累積跌幅為<span lang="EN-US">48%</span>。港股持續下跌了三年,似乎還未看見黑暗隧道的盡頭,投資者擔心</span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-CN" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">:</span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">究竟低迷的港股會是價值陷阱嗎?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">從估值上看,港股近年的估值已被市場降級,平均預測市盈率只有約<span lang="EN-US">11</span>倍,低於過往平均的<span lang="EN-US">13-14</span>倍。也許是因為市場對港股的盈利增長前景沒有以前那麽樂觀及要求的回報率增加(隨著無風險回報率和中國政策風險增加)。值得思考的問題是:這個降級的過程是否接近尾聲?港股現時的預測市盈率(只有約<span lang="EN-US">9</span>倍)較以往低,是否值得增持?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">這主要取決於美國對中國的科技制裁和打壓,會否拖垮內地的經濟發展,美國息口的去向及企業盈利增長等因素。假如投資者對中國經濟發展的韌力、龐大的消費市場及香港長遠的發展具有信心,趁別人恐懼的時候,分散地投資港股不同行業的龍頭企業,應該是一個不錯的投資策略。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"">但有一點要留意:過去三十年,港股經歷了幾次股災,每次都能化險為夷,今次會否不一樣?之前兩次周期港股需要約十年時間才能再創高位,如果出現結構性改變,也許今次需要更長時間,投資者要有充分的心理和財務準備。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com116tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-80749931922509793462023-09-02T11:28:00.004+08:002023-09-02T11:28:26.471+08:00股市如賭場?<p> <b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-09-0</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">有一天,在大氣電波偶然聽到有一位資深股評人說:「香港股市有如賭場」。對於這句說話,我實在不敢苟同。也許對於不少熱衷短線炒賣的散戶來說,股市真的有點像賭場,因為短期的股市不是升,就是跌,上升或下跌的機會均半。他們期望猜中短期的大市走勢從而賺取差價,就如去賭場「賭大細」。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">那些視股市如賭場的投資者,也許忽略了以下幾件事:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">首先,股票並不只是一張紙,而是代表公司的股權。通過基礎分析,公司的價值大致是可以計算的。雖然短期的股價不可預測,但長遠來說,股價都會向公司的價值靠近。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">其次,擁有持久競爭優勢的優質企業,其價值應會隨著時間而提升,有誠信、遠見和執行力的管理層能夠不斷為股東創造價值。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">因此,投資者須要聚焦尋找優質股,待價格低估的時候(具備充足的安全邊際)買入,然後長期持有</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">與企業一起成長。這樣,投資者便可以獲得雙重的潛在回報<span lang="EN-US">------</span>股價從低估回歸應有的估值及在持有期間公司創造出來的累計價值。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">再者,從歷史數據看,香港股票市場(恆生指數)的長期整體趨勢都是向上的,縱使近十年的表現強差人意。在股市上升的週期中,投資者持有股票的時間越長,贏面便越大。舉個例子,假如投資者打算持有股票的時間只是一天,那麽,賺錢的機率可能只有<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>;但假如投資者打算持有股票的時間是二十年,甚至三十年,那麽,賺錢的機率應該會超過<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">總的來說,重視風險、穩健的價值投資者並不喜歡賭博,對於沒有把握或價格太高的股票,他們寧願不買,直至機會出現、形勢有利(低風險、高回報)的時候才出擊,然後耐心持有。把股市當作賭場的投資者或投機者,那是欠缺耐性,又不想做研究功課的藉口,只想純粹靠運氣,希望得到幸運之神眷顧,短線獲利,其長期的投資成績可想而知。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com77tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-48392816634006622862023-07-29T17:15:00.007+08:002023-07-29T17:15:58.660+08:00「主人與狗」的理論<p> <b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-7-29<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">鄰居黃太有一隻十分可愛的比熊犬,名叫「肥肥」,她每天都會遛狗,帶著「肥肥」在屋苑附近的路邊散步。今早又看見黃太如常拖著「肥肥」散步,令我不期然想起德國「股神」科斯托蘭尼(<span lang="EN-US">Kostolany</span>)提出的「主人與狗」的理論。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">科斯托蘭尼把主人比喻為公司的基本面或實體經濟,把小狗比喻為公司的股價或大市。依他的觀察,主人在遛狗時,小狗會有時走在主人的前面,有時或會走在主人的後面,但長遠來看,小狗最終都會回到主人的身邊。這個現象就像「短期的股價有時候會受投資情緒影響而大升或大跌,偏離公司應有的價值,但長遠來看,股價最終都會回歸公司的基本面」。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">科斯托蘭尼提出這個「主人與狗」的理論,目的是想說明公司價值與股票價格之間的關係。當投資者明白了它們的關係,就應該不會太在意「小狗」會往哪裡跑,因為「小狗」最終都是會自動地返回來找主人的。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我覺得投資者與其每天在研究「小狗」的動向,希望從「小狗」的活動軌跡中,尋找「小狗」下一步往哪裡跑的訊號(這個有點似技術分析</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,不如把焦點放在研究公司的價值,畢竟公司價值才是「主人」,股票價格只是「小狗」而已。當投資者確定了所持有的公司的基本面是良好的,便大可不必擔心短期股價的波動。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">至於如何評估公司的內在價值?投資者可以透過基礎分析、財務分析等工具,加上一些合理的假設推算出來。假如投資者對公司的內在價值有基本的認識和了解,當遇到股價大幅波動時,便不致於過度貪婪或恐懼,既不會在高位追貨,也不會在低位止蝕,反而可以堅守「低買高賣」的操作原則,利用市場上出現的錯價為自己創造賺錢的契機。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-25629986839167449412023-07-17T12:05:00.002+08:002023-07-17T12:05:45.608+08:00努力練習乒乓球的成果<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-7-17<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">昨天真是美妙的一天!我獲取了人生第一座乒乓球比賽的獎杯。這座細小平凡的獎杯令我樂透了大半天,快樂原來可以這麽簡單!<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">是次比賽是由康樂及文化事務處署及荃灣區體育康樂聯會合辦的「荃灣區分齡乒乓球比賽<span lang="EN-US">2023/24</span>」,我跟拍檔參加男子雙打先進組,最後取得季軍。這個獎項見證了自己過去幾年不斷學習如何打好乒乓球的成果,算是我乒乓球生涯</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">中</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">的一個鼓勵吧!我會繼續努力,盡力提高技術,並享受打乒乓球的樂趣。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我曾在<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">20</span>日的<span lang="EN-US"><</span>從打乒乓球到投資<span lang="EN-US">></span>網誌文章中,提到投資跟打乒乓球有相似的地方,就是正確的方法很重要。只要掌握正確的投資方法,取勝的機率自然會增加,長遠來說很大機會成為投資路上的贏家</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">共勉之!</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQoo2w7ZpxuvvoavwmeNqVQqgecRBlZD3jeCgRlLf9p1SuP3D-9o1ZTDGV4mbnbXVfczIJhrOoZvmLYRdiDGovAZHJM9f4EqSt3DvlaDYfC1TjBwYiDXJwHpq4AZDgCYK18ymph2Cz_GUaExCntjo0O7XsnLOMmVjIHK6rGsNoQOfN4xB2xXaglUbFHoM/s4128/20230717_105232.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4128" data-original-width="3096" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQoo2w7ZpxuvvoavwmeNqVQqgecRBlZD3jeCgRlLf9p1SuP3D-9o1ZTDGV4mbnbXVfczIJhrOoZvmLYRdiDGovAZHJM9f4EqSt3DvlaDYfC1TjBwYiDXJwHpq4AZDgCYK18ymph2Cz_GUaExCntjo0O7XsnLOMmVjIHK6rGsNoQOfN4xB2xXaglUbFHoM/s320/20230717_105232.jpg" width="240" /></a></b></div><b><br /><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b><p></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-38751521816837204842023-06-22T10:13:00.005+08:002023-06-22T10:13:48.289+08:00只可用閒錢投資<p> <b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-06-22<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">早前一位退休的好朋友<span lang="EN-US">P</span>小姐問我:「已經預留了一筆錢,打算六個月後為家居裝修</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">筆錢暫時沒有用途</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">見港股低迷,心思思想入市,趁低買入盈富基金(<span lang="EN-US">2800</span>)或港交所(<span lang="EN-US">388</span>),期望股市反彈,短線賺取差價,幫補一下裝修的費用。這個想法行得通嗎?」<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我斬釘截鐵地回答:「只有長期不需動用的資金,才可以拿去投資,最好是投資優質企業。現在距離裝修的時間只有半年,投資時限實在太短了,須知道即使現時港股的估值尚算偏低,也不一定會上升,因為短期股市是投票機,極受市場投資情緒影響,短期股價可以持續偏離公司的內在價值。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">嚴格來說,你動用預留的裝修費用去買股票,屬於投機行為。萬一港股持續下跌,該筆裝修儲備便有機會錄得虧損,『水瓜打狗,不見一截』,分分鐘到時打亂你的裝修計劃,得不償失呢!」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我繼續解說:「當投資股票設有時限,而在限期前的股價存在不確定性,不一定會高於你的買入價</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">因此短期價格的波動便會構成風險,這解釋了為何短線炒賣屬於投機行為,應該儘量避免。」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">P</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">小姐聽完我的話,再仔細想清楚,於是決定把該筆裝修儲備做了半年的定期存款,收取年利率逾<span lang="EN-US">3%</span>,確保本金可以將來用作裝修找數。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">很多時候,散戶總是分不清投資與投機的差異,只懂得追求回報,忽略風險。我還是強調:投資前宜考慮所有風險,時刻緊記短期股市的走勢未必符合預期,市場上或許會出現意想不到的事情和因素,因此只可用閒錢投資。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-79324699848775307312023-05-26T11:56:00.004+08:002023-05-26T11:56:12.650+08:00再用DDM評估新鴻基地產的內在價值(十四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-05-</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">26<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">由於新鴻基地產</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">0016</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)盈利基礎穩固,財務狀況良好,派息穩定,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我嘗試再用「股利折現模型」(<span lang="EN-US">D</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">ividend Discount
Model</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,簡稱</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">DDM</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)評估它的內在價值。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我基於兩個假設:(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>)未來股息增長率(<span lang="EN-US">g</span>)<span lang="EN-US">= 2.78%</span>及(<span lang="EN-US">2</span>)必要報酬率(<span lang="EN-US">r</span>)<span lang="EN-US">= 6.76%</span>,得出新鴻基地產的內在價值(<span lang="EN-US">P0</span>)為<span lang="EN-US">127.9</span>港元。現價<span lang="EN-US">10</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">1.8</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">港元(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">25</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">日),較內在價值低</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">DDM</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">計算公式:<span lang="EN-US">P0 = D1 / (r </span>–<span lang="EN-US"> g)</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">P0 = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">內在價值</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">D0 = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">現在的股息<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">D1 = </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">第一年的股息</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> = D0 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">1+g</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">g = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">股息增長率<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">r = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">必要報酬率<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">= </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">無風險回報<span lang="EN-US"> + </span>股票啤打系數(<span lang="EN-US">Beta</span>) </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">x</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(市場回報<span lang="EN-US"> - </span>無風險回報)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">代入新鴻基地產的數據,計算過程如下:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>)首先要找出<span lang="EN-US">g</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">第一個方法:<span lang="EN-US">g = ROE </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> (1 - </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">派息比例<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">六月年結<span lang="EN-US">) <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>2022 20</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">21</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> 2020 20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">19</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span>201</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">淨利潤<span lang="EN-US"> (</span>百萬港元<span lang="EN-US">) <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">25</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">560</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">26</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">686</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">3,52</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">912</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span> 4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">951</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">核心淨利潤<span lang="EN-US"> (</span>百萬港元<span lang="EN-US">)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>2</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">729</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">9,8</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">73</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">368</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">32</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">398</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">30</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">398</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">股東資金<span lang="EN-US"> (</span>百萬港元<span lang="EN-US">)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">601</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">946</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">593</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">820</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">571</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">813</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">566</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">405</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">539</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">098</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">ROE (%)<span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">4.25</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">4.49</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.11</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">7.93</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">9.27</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">核心<span lang="EN-US">ROE (%)<span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">4.77</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">5.03%</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>5.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">14</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">5.72</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">5.64</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">五年平均核心<span lang="EN-US">ROE (%) = 5.2</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">6</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">% </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">六月年結<span lang="EN-US">) <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>2022 <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>20</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">21</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>2020 <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">19</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span>201</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">EPS (</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">港元<span lang="EN-US">) <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8.82</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">9.21</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8.12</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>15.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">5</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span> </span>1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">7.24</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">核心<span lang="EN-US">EPS (</span>港元<span lang="EN-US">)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> <span> </span></span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">9.91</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">10.31</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">10.13</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">11.18</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">10.49</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">DPS (</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">港元<span lang="EN-US">)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">5 <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.65</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">派息比例<span lang="EN-US"> (%)<span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span></span></span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">56.1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span></span></span>53.7</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">61.0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">31.9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">27.0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">核心派息比例<span lang="EN-US"> (%)<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">49.9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span></span>4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">8.0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span></span>4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">8.9</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span></span>4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span></span>4</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">五年平均核心派息比例<span lang="EN-US"> (%)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> = 4</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">7.08</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">g = ROE </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> (1 - </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">派息比例<span lang="EN-US">)</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">= 5.2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">6</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">% </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(<span lang="EN-US">1 – 4</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">7.1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">= 2.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">78</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 5;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">第二個方法:參考公司過去的派息增長率</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">新鴻基地產過去的派息記錄:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">年度<span lang="EN-US"> </span>股息(港元)增長</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2012<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>3.35 <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2013<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>3.35 <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2014<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>3.35 <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2015<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>3.35 <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2016<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>3.85 <span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>14.9%</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2017<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.10<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>6.5%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2018<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.65<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>13.4%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2019<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.95<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>6.5%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2020<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.95<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2021<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.95<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2022<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>4.95<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>0.0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">過去<span lang="EN-US">10</span>年平均每年股息增長率<span lang="EN-US"> (20</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">13</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">-20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">22</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">) = </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3.98</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">% </span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">複合增長率(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Compound
Annual Growth Rate, </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">簡稱</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">CAGR</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)的計算方程式</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">CAGR =
</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(現有價值</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> / </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">基礎價值)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">^ (1/N) - 1<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">N = </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">有關年期內的年數</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">g = (</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> / </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3.35</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">)^(1/10) - 1 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 1.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 12.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3.98</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我保守地採取兩個方法中的較低值<span lang="EN-US">g =2.78%</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)第二步要找出</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">r</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">r = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">無風險回報<span lang="EN-US"> + Beta </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> x</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(市場回報<span lang="EN-US"> - </span>無風險回報)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">無風險回報<span lang="EN-US"> = </span>香港<span lang="EN-US">10</span>年期政府債券孳息率<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3.22</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(資料來源:</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">hkinvesting.com</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">新地</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Beta</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">值</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> = </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">0.74</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(資料來源:</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">reuters.com/markets/companies/0016.hk/key-metrics</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">恆生指數年底數據:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2020</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> =
27231</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2021</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> =
23397<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2022</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> =
19781<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">三年平均</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> =
23470<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">000</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">年<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">15095</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">01</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">年<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">11397<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">02</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">年<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">9321<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">三年平均<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">11938<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">CAGR = (23470 / 11938)^(1/20) - 1</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 3.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.05pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">= 3.44%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">股息率<span lang="EN-US"> = 3%</span>至<span lang="EN-US">4%</span>(資料來源:恆指服務公司)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">市場回報<span lang="EN-US"> = </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">6.44</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-font-family: 新細明體;">至</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">7.44%</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(恒生指數過去<span lang="EN-US">2</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">0</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">年平均每年的回報率,包括股息在內)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我保守地假設市場回報率為<span lang="EN-US">8</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">r = </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">無風險回報<span lang="EN-US"> + Beta </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;"> x</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(市場回報<span lang="EN-US"> - </span>無風險回報)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">3.22</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">% + </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">0.74</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">8</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">% - </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">3.22</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">) </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">6.76</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)第三步計算</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">P0</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">D0 =
20</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">22</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">年的派息</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> = </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">港元</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">D1 = </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">4.95</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">x</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">1 + </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2.78</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">5.09</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">港元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">P0 =
D1 /</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">r - g</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">5.09</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> / (</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">6.76</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">% - </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">2.78</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">=</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> 5.09</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> / 3.</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">98</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">= </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">127.9</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">港元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">25</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">= 101.8</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">/P0 =</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">101.8 / 127.9<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 3.43; text-align: justify; text-indent: 41.3pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">=</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> 0.8</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-48940798967886063502023-05-01T10:42:00.005+08:002023-05-01T10:42:50.677+08:00港股不冷不熱<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-0</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">01<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股今年以來缺乏方向,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">恒生指數</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">上周五(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">28</span>日)收市<span lang="EN-US">19894</span>點,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">跟<span lang="EN">2022</span>年底<span lang="EN">19781</span>點比較,幾乎原地踏步。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">從以下一些量度股票市場熱度的指標來看,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資氣氛可謂不冷不熱</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(一)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">經濟狀況是好還是壞,前景如何?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">受惠疫後復常,消費零售回升,中國<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年第一季<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>按年上升<span lang="EN-US">4.5%</span>,超過市場預期,預計全年目標可達<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>(<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>增長只有<span lang="EN-US">3%</span>)。香港年初全面通關後,今年經濟勢將復甦,預測<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>增長<span lang="EN-US">3.5%</span>至<span lang="EN-US">5.5%</span>,扭轉<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>負增長<span lang="EN-US">3.5%</span>的形勢。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(二)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">資本市場是寬鬆還是緊縮?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">自從美國聯儲局於<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份開始加息,累計加幅逾<span lang="EN-US">4%</span>,美國<span lang="EN-US">10</span>年期國債孳息率攀升至<span lang="EN-US">3.5%</span>(最高曾超越<span lang="EN-US">4%</span>水平),顯示目前的資本市場遠較兩年前緊縮。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中國內房債務危機還未完全解決,加上近期美國爆發銀行信心危機(矽谷銀行倒閉),有可能導致信貸收縮的風險,令質素欠佳的企業的借貸和融資成本顯著上升。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">再者,港股乏善足陳,新股上市(<span lang="EN-US">IPO</span>)的數量和規模大幅減少。外資撤走,令香港銀行體系結餘跌穿<span lang="EN-US">500</span>億港元,跟高峰期逾<span lang="EN-US">4000</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億港元相差甚遠。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(三)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">利息是低還是高?借貸容易嗎?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">美國聯儲局於<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">23</span>日再度加息<span lang="EN-US">0.25%</span>後,聯邦基金利率為<span lang="EN-US">4.75%</span>至<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>。觀乎美國<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月份通脹(<span lang="EN-US">CPI</span>)回落至<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>(<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月高峰<span lang="EN-US">9.1%</span>),市場普遍預期加息周期也許接近尾聲。利息見頂對本港企業及供樓人士是好消息,可以舒緩持續加息對他們構成的財務壓力。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(四)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">大市近期是否已經上漲或</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">下跌</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">了很多?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">恒生指數從<span lang="EN">2018</span>年<span lang="EN">1</span>月的歷史高位<span lang="EN">33500</span>點,下跌至<span lang="EN">2022</span>年<span lang="EN">10</span>月<span lang="EN">31</span>日最低的<span lang="EN">14597</span>點,累計跌幅達<span lang="EN">56%</span>。雖然其後反彈<span lang="EN">36%</span>至上周五</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">收市<span lang="EN-US">19894</span>點,但仍然較</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">歷史高位低<span lang="EN">41%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股已經連續三年下跌,<span lang="EN">2020</span>年至<span lang="EN">2022</span>年分別下跌<span lang="EN">3.4%</span>、<span lang="EN">14.1%</span>和<span lang="EN">15.4%</span>。今年首四個月,港股亦只有波幅,沒有升幅。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(五)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股票價格和估值偏高還是偏低?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">以恒生指數上周五(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月<span lang="EN-US">28</span>日)收市<span lang="EN-US">19894</span>點計算,<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年預測市盈率少於<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍,低於過去的中位數約<span lang="EN-US">11</span>倍。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(六)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">大部分投資者對後市樂觀還是悲觀?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">看好或看淡港股後市的投資者都擁有</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">各自</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">的理由。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資者感到樂觀的因素包括:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中港疫後經濟回復正常,帶動企業盈利增長;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中國第一季經濟增長超預期,勢頭良好;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">美國近月通脹有見頂回落跡象</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">令市場衝憧憬加息周期快將完結;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中國政府對互聯網平台監管的風險大減;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股估值稍為偏低。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資者感到悲觀的因素包括:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">俄烏戰爭(地緣政治)持續;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">美國通脹威脅還未解除,距離目標<span lang="EN-US">2%</span>尚遠,息口也許仍未見頂;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中國內房債務危機還未完全解決,多間大型內房民企的債務重組仍然在進行中;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">矽谷銀行倒閉與瑞信危機,將會導致信貸收縮,令美國有機會陷入經濟衰退,拖累全球經濟增長;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">中美關係近期有惡化跡象,美國限制投資半導體及人工智能技術於中國。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(七)</span></b><b style="text-indent: -37.8pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">散戶在積極參與嗎?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">今年首季的平均每日成交量約<span lang="EN-US">1280</span>億港元,跟<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年的平均每日成交量<span lang="EN-US">1249</span>億港元差不多。經過三年跌市的折騰,散戶投資港股的興趣已大減。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">總的來說,在股票市場不冷不熱的環境下,投資者既不宜太冒進,但也不宜太保守。究竟現時的港股是處於熊市的反彈,還是牛市的開始階段?我沒有確實的答案。我想起<span lang="EN-US">Blogger</span>市場先生曾經講過類似的說話:「升市我有貨,跌市我有錢。</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">」作為現時的資產配置策略也不錯。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-26960114730484954412023-04-17T19:45:00.001+08:002023-04-17T19:45:12.144+08:002022年香港公共圖書館書籍借閱排行榜<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-04-17<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #050505; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Historic"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月份左右,香港公共圖書館都會公布上個年度的書籍借閱排行榜,今年也不例外。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #050505; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Historic"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #050505; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Historic"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">在<a href="https://www.hkpl.gov.hk/tc/collections/top-100-most-borrowed/2022/tc-adult-lending-non-fiction.html"><span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年香港公共圖書館書籍借閱排行榜首<span lang="EN-US">100</span>位(成人外借非小說類)</a>(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #050505; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Historic";">https://www.hkpl.gov.hk/tc/collections/top-100-most-borrowed/2022/tc-adult-lending-non-fiction.html</span></b><b><span style="background: white; color: #050505; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Segoe UI Historic"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)的名單中,我有五本書入選,分別排行第<span lang="EN-US">6</span>位《選股與估值》,第<span lang="EN-US">32</span>位《投資框架的構建與堅守》、第<span lang="EN-US">38</span>位《讀財報 學選股 計估值》、第<span lang="EN-US">40</span>位《實踐價值投資的真諦》及第<span lang="EN-US">69</span>位《資產配置 逆向思維》,令我感到十分欣喜。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">在此,衷心感謝每一位曾經借閱過我的書的讀者。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-43123609375244904082023-04-01T20:31:00.005+08:002023-04-01T20:31:26.001+08:00友邦保險估值更新(十三)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股<span lang="EN-US">票<span lang="EN-US">經</span></span></span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-04-0</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">友邦保險(<span lang="EN-US">1299</span>)於<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">10</span>日公布截至<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月底止全年業績,大致符合市場預期。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年新業務價值(<span lang="EN-US">NBV</span>)為<span lang="EN-US">30.92</span>億美元,按固定匯率計算,同比下跌<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>。由於疫情的影響退卻,<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年下半年<span lang="EN-US">NBV</span>按固定匯率計算同比增長<span lang="EN-US">6%</span>。友邦宣佈派發末期股息每股<span lang="EN-US">1.134</span>港元,連同中期股息<span lang="EN-US">0.403</span>港元,全年派息<span lang="EN-US">1.537</span>港元,同比上升<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>。以昨天(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日)收市價<span lang="EN-US">82.65</span>港元計算,股息率為<span lang="EN-US">1.9%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我採用最新的財務數據,更新友邦的評估價值(<span lang="EN-US">AV</span>),得出每股<span lang="EN-US">AV</span>為<span lang="EN-US">83.3</span>港元,較<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US">25</span>日時的每股評估價值<span lang="EN-US">77.5</span>港元〔見<span lang="EN-US"><</span>友邦保險估值合理(十二)<span lang="EN-US">></span>〕提升了<span lang="EN-US">7%</span>。現價<span lang="EN-US">82.65</span>港元,跟最新的評估價值差不多,估值合理</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我會繼續持有</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">友邦保險<span lang="EN-US">AV</span>計算方法如下:</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">發行股數<span lang="EN-US"> = 117.34</span>億(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">9</span>日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">內涵價值權益<span lang="EN-US"> EV = 712</span>億美元(<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月底及回購後)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股<span lang="EN-US">EV = 712</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">117.34</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 6.07</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">美元<span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 47.6</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>美元兌<span lang="EN-US">7.85</span>港元)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> = 82.65</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">31</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">P/EV = 82.65</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">47.6 = 1.74</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(以實質匯率計算)</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2011</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>9.3</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2012</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>11.9</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+27%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2013<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>14.9</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+25%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2014<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>18.4</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+24%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2015</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>22.0</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+19%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2016 </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>27.5</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+25%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2017</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>35.1</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+28%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2018</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>39.6</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+23%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2019</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>41.5</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2020</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>27.7</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-33%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2021</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>33.7</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>+22%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>30.9</span>億美元<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-8%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年複合增長率(<span lang="EN-US">CAGR </span>)(<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>至<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年)<span lang="EN-US">= 11.5%</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(億美元)</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2020</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2021</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <u>2022</u></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增長(<span lang="EN-US">%</span>)</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1Q </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8.41 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">10.52 <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>8.53 </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-18%</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5.69<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.62<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6.83<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-10%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.06<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.35<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7.41<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">+1%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4Q<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6.49<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8.17<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>8.15<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">+0%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">全年<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>27.65<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>33.66<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>30.92<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-8%<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US">NBV = 30.92</span>億美元(<span lang="EN-US">-8%</span>)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">NBV</span>增長<span lang="EN-US">15% =
30.92 x (1+15%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 35.56</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億美元<span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股<span lang="EN-US"> 0.303</span>美元 (<span lang="EN-US">35.56</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">117.34</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股<span lang="EN-US"> 2.38</span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">1</span>美元兌<span lang="EN-US">7.85</span>港元)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV Multiple =
15</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍(根據</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">NBV</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增長而定的假設)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">AV = EV + NBV x Multiple</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 47.6 +
2.38 x 15<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 47.6 +
35.7<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>= 83.3 </span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股價<span lang="EN-US"> = 82.65 </span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">P/AV =
82.65</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷<span lang="EN-US">83.3 </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; text-align: justify; text-indent: 24.0pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">= 0.99</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-6453545561923381872023-03-08T13:56:00.002+08:002023-03-08T13:56:14.984+08:00致力尋找好股<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-03-0</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">8<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">最近看過「股神」巴菲特<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年寫給巴郡(<span lang="EN-US">Berkshire Hathaway</span>)股東的信,其中論述他管理巴郡的<span lang="EN-US">58</span>年投資生涯中,大部分的資本配置決定都只是一般,有些甚至是災難性的(例如<span lang="EN-US">USAir </span>及<span lang="EN-US"> Salomon</span>),巴郡獲取滿意的投資成績主要是靠<span lang="EN-US">12</span>次真正好的投資決定(大概每隔五年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>次)及長期持有的本色。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">巴菲特列舉了可口可樂及美國運通作為例子。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">巴郡用了<span lang="EN-US">7</span>年時間於<span lang="EN-US">1994</span>年完成買入可口可樂的股票,總成本是<span lang="EN-US">13</span>億美元。於<span lang="EN-US">1994</span>年收取股息<span lang="EN-US">0.75</span>億美元,股息每年穩定增長,到<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年股息增加至<span lang="EN-US">7.04</span>億美元(將來很大機會還會增加),而股票價值高達<span lang="EN-US">250</span>億美元,佔巴郡的資產淨值約<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">美國運通的故事跟可口可樂差不多。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">巴郡於<span lang="EN-US">1995</span>年完成買入美國運通的股票,總成本恰巧也是<span lang="EN-US">13</span>億美元,收取的股息從<span lang="EN-US">1995</span>年的<span lang="EN-US">0.41</span>億美元,增加至<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年的<span lang="EN-US">3.02</span>億美元(將來很大機會還會增加),而股票價值高達<span lang="EN-US">220</span>億美元,佔巴郡的資產淨值約<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">巴菲特提到,假設他當年投資決策失誤,沒有動用該<span lang="EN-US">13</span>億美元買入可口可樂或美國運通,而是投資於沒有增長潛力的項目(比如美國<span lang="EN-US">30</span>年期政府債券),那麽,該筆投資目前只會佔巴郡資產淨值的<span lang="EN-US">0.3%</span>(一個無關痛癢的數字),而每年收取的股息只有<span lang="EN-US">0.8</span>億美元。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">對於投資者而言,巴菲特認為只需要找對一些優勝股,隨著時間的推移,便能產生神奇的效果。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我也有類似的經驗。在過去<span lang="EN-US">30</span>多年的投資生涯中,我在港交所(<span lang="EN-US">388</span>)、金蝶(<span lang="EN-US">268</span>)、金山軟件(<span lang="EN-US">3888</span>)及比亞迪(<span lang="EN-US">1211</span>)獲取的回報,大概佔股票投資組合總回報的一半,假如當初沒有投資於該四隻股票,我的股票投資組合回報率將會大打折扣。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我是如何選中這些優勝股?這些優勝股具備那些特質?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我想除了運氣外,還是離不開公司持久的競爭優勢、市場的發展潛力,以及管理層的質素和誠信,包括懂得如何帶領公司開拓市場,適應變化中的經營環境及保持公司長期的競爭力。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">在投資策略上,即使是優質股,也不要支付太高的價格買入,必須留意安全邊際。此外,買入須要有一定的數量,例如佔股票投資組合</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">5</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">的比重,效果才會較為顯著。買入後要耐心長期持有,不要輕言止賺,除非股價出現泡沫式上漲令估值過高或公司的基本面明顯惡化。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">前著名基金基理<span lang="EN-US">Peter Lynch</span>講過「只要找對幾隻好股,一生的投資生涯便值得了。」</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-15370713960683141292023-02-12T11:08:00.001+08:002023-02-13T13:51:25.719+08:00領展供股令人意外(五)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="color: #666666; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="color: #666666; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-02-12<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">星期五傍晚新聞時段,太座慣性地打開電視,突然看到「領展供股集資<span lang="EN-US">188</span>億港元(<span lang="EN-US">5</span>股供<span lang="EN-US">1</span>股,每股供股價<span lang="EN-US">44.2</span>港元,較停牌前收市價<span lang="EN-US">62.8</span>港元折讓<span lang="EN-US">29.6%</span>)」的消息,嚇了她一跳。太座整晚嘰哩咕嚕,纏著問我為何領展要供股。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">事緣太座的退休股票組合中持有領展房產基金(<span lang="EN-US">823</span>),當初買領展是因為它穩健,持續派息,是退休之選。今次領展供股,心水清的太座計一計數,原來要將她過去幾年收到的股息,在荷包中拿出來供股!她怎會甘心,還說做夢也沒有想過</span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-CN" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">相信不少領展的基金單位持有人(類似公司的股東)都有類似太座的感想和疑惑,究竟領展為甚麽要供股?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">從領展今次公布供股計劃來看,也許反映了其海外擴展步伐太快。領展近幾年大肆併購</span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-CN" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">例如<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月28日便動用了<span lang="EN-US">125</span>億港元收購新加坡兩個商場,令債務總額對資產總額比率由<span lang="EN-US">23.2%</span>增加至<span lang="EN-US">27.1%</span>,倘若負債比率超越<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>水平,便有可能會引致信貸評級下調。相信領展的管理層低估了息口向上令融資成本大幅增加的影響,最後以供股作為融資方式。我認為這並不符合基金單位持有人的預期和意願,財務管理以及企業管治也許出現了警號。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">雖然像管理層所言,供股相對於配股對現有基金單位持有人來說是一個較為公平的集資方法,因為所有基金單位持有人都可以參與供股,股權不會被攤薄,但是管理層有否考慮基金單位持有人的意願?防禦型投資者買領展主要是希望穩定收息,他們是否會認同管理層進行大規模收購行動,卻換來負債比率過高,資金不夠,最終要他們把以前收到並袋袋平安的股息奉上?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">相信很多小股東都寧願領展放慢大型併購,專注提升現有投資物業的效率和價值。財務管理上,我認為管理層不妨考慮出售非核心、潛力較低的物業,降低負債比率後才進行大型收購,這樣既可優化投資物業租合的質素,而又無須向基金單位持有人伸手集資。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">由於領展供股的消息突如其來,令人意想不到,<span lang="EN-US">2005</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月上市至今從來未試過,兼且供股價大幅折讓,明天(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">2</span>月<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日)開市股價勢必下挫,基金單位持有人未見併購的利益,先見其害,為管理層的財務管理失誤付出代價,這是十分無奈的事情。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-72153614296708918942023-02-02T12:23:00.000+08:002023-02-02T12:23:28.893+08:00中學生實踐價值投資實錄<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-02-02<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><em><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></em><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網友應該還記得我經常提起太座那位對價值投資「一聽就明白,一明白就接受,並立刻執行」的親戚吧!<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">農曆新年團拜期間,閒聊之中</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">親戚透露仍然就讀中四的兒子(<span lang="EN-US">Y</span>公子)在早前港股大跌的時候,讓著媽媽動用他過往多年儲存的利是錢買股票,打算長線投資。他心儀盈富基金(<span lang="EN-US">2800</span>),策略是分兩注入市,越低越買。結果第一注於<span lang="EN-US">19</span>港元買入,第二注於<span lang="EN-US">17</span>港元買入。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">也許網友會好奇,<span lang="EN-US">Y</span>公子只得十來歲,理財觀念從何而來?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">原來<span lang="EN-US">Y</span>公子年紀輕輕卻思想較早熟,除了喜愛看武俠小說及偵探小說外,還喜歡閱讀羅伯特·清崎的《富爸爸·窮爸爸》<span lang="EN-US">(</span>《<span lang="EN-US">Rich Dad Poor Dad</span>》<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,以及我送給他爸爸的六本拙作,啟蒙了他對「資產」、「負債」、「現金流」的認識</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">並引起他對股票投資的興趣。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Y</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">公子人生第一次的實戰操作,我認為有幾點是值得讚賞的。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(一)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">從小就培養儲蓄和投資的觀念。先把利是錢儲起,然後適當時機投資股票,實行長線投資</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">享受複利效應</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(二)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">懂得價值投資的理念,趁別人恐慌、百貨公司大減價的時候,把握時機,趁低吸納心儀的股票。他顯然知道「低價買入」是獲利的關鍵因素。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(三)由於專注於學業,沒有時間去分析個別股票的基本面,故此簡單地以代表整個香港股票市場的指數基金(即盈富基金)代替,避免選錯股的風險。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(四)分兩注入市,越低越買,減低平均成本。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">將來無論這次投資的結果如何,若干年回頭看,也將會是<span lang="EN-US">Y</span>公子一次難得的經驗。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-36562685844847416482023-01-29T18:15:00.000+08:002023-01-29T18:15:05.474+08:00操作背後的思路和數學邏輯(四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">01</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">29<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">最後一集《鍾記
威廉人(四)被鍾記問返轉頭》 已經在止凡兄的<span lang="EN-US">YouTube Channel</span>播放,如果大家想知道究竟我問了止凡兄甚麽問題,記得觀看!</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BHfRtEPRAMI" width="320" youtube-src-id="BHfRtEPRAMI"></iframe></div><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-41502983159918223052023-01-27T13:11:00.004+08:002023-01-27T13:11:28.357+08:00操作背後的思路和數學邏輯(三)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">01</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">2</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">7<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">第三集《鍾記 威廉人(三)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">跌市反省 未來策略》</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">已經在止凡兄的<span lang="EN-US">YouTube Channel</span>播</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">放</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">謝謝觀看</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">!</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l7_77oHzzRg" width="320" youtube-src-id="l7_77oHzzRg"></iframe></b></div><b><br /><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><br /></span></b><p></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-89908649824135533162023-01-25T10:22:00.004+08:002023-01-25T10:22:59.907+08:00十大瀏覽量最高的網誌文章<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-01-25<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">農曆新年期間,忽發奇想,想知道一下自從<span lang="EN-US">2011</span>年<span lang="EN-US">4</span>月開始寫《股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道》網誌以來,究竟哪些網誌文章最能引起網友的興趣</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">大家有興趣了解嗎</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">?<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">十大瀏覽量最高的網誌文章</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> <span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></span></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">發佈日期</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2021/07/blog-post_24.html"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">企業負債太高的風險<span lang="EN-US"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span> </span><span> <span> <span> </span> </span> </span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">24</span></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2020/08/blog-post_66.html"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">買入領展、煤氣、恆生<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span>2<span> </span>020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">8</span>月<span lang="EN-US">8</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2020/03/blog-post_19.html"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增持港股</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 9;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span> </span></span>2020</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">19</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2021/12/blog-post.html"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">疲弱的港股是「危」還是「機」</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">?</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span>2021</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">12</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post.html"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">穩健的股票投資組合<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> </span></span>2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">5</span>月<span lang="EN-US">2</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2018/08/blog-post_5.html"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增持部分股票</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 8;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> <span> <span> </span><span> </span> </span> </span></span></span>2018</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">8</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2019/06/blog-post.html"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增持部分股票(二)</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span> <span> </span></span></span>2019</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">月</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">7</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2022/03/blog-post.html"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">股票市場熱度持續減少<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 6;"> <span> </span><span> </span><span> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span> <span> </span></span></span>2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">12</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2022/09/blog-post_20.html"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">基本信念<span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> <span> </span><span> </span> </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">20</span>日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: 新細明體; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">10.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span></b><!--[endif]--><a href="https://bennychungwai.blogspot.com/2021/10/blog-post_5.html"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">「低價買入」始終是獲利的最佳途徑<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">5</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">日</span></b></a><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">看來網友都是較關心別人的實戰操作呢!</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-47915662294534104752023-01-23T14:21:00.005+08:002023-01-23T14:21:59.198+08:00操作背後的思路和數學邏輯(二)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">01</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">23<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">第二集《鍾記
威廉人(二)騰訊估值 恆指合理值》已經在止凡兄的<span lang="EN-US">YouTube Channel</span>播</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">放</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">謝謝觀看</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">!</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PbF1MmhO7I0" width="320" youtube-src-id="PbF1MmhO7I0"></iframe></b></div><b><br /><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-45502951009401344212023-01-19T17:12:00.005+08:002023-01-19T17:12:36.036+08:00操作背後的思路和數學邏輯<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">01</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">19<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">感謝止凡兄的邀請和安排,於<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">17</span>日晚上與威廉人和我來個三人行<span lang="EN-US">Zoom</span>,讓我有機會解釋一下自己一些操作背後的思路和數學邏輯。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">第一集《鍾記
威廉人(一)減持銀娛 阿里估值》已經在止凡兄的<span lang="EN-US">YouTube Channel</span>播放,還有幾集後續,大家記得追看呢!</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ynipXj1bxS4" width="320" youtube-src-id="ynipXj1bxS4"></iframe></b></div><b><br /><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></b><p></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-58636936029842092072023-01-14T18:16:00.001+08:002023-01-14T18:16:10.878+08:00推算恒生指數2023年的合理值(四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">202</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-0</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">-</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">14<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港股今年有一個很好的開局,首兩個星期,恆生指數已經上升了<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>。若果從<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月<span lang="EN-US">31</span>日的熊市低位<span lang="EN-US">14597</span>點計算,截至昨天(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日)的收市價<span lang="EN-US">21736</span>點,累積升幅更達<span lang="EN-US">49%</span>!<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資者不禁會問:究竟港股的升勢還會持續嗎?短期還有多少上升空間?近期出現眾多利好消息,比如中國放寬防疫政策、中港免檢疫通關令兩地經濟有望復常;美國通脹見頂回落令投資者預期加息步伐將會放慢;內地猛力推出救內房政策令房地產行業爆煲的風險大減;以及科企監管近尾聲等等。以上種種究竟是否已經反映在近期的股市反彈中?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">要解答這個問題,不妨從港股目前的估值入手。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我根據最新的恆生指數每股盈利預測數據(資料來源:彭博<span lang="EN-US">Bloomberg</span>),推算出恒生指數<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年的合理值為<span lang="EN-US">22638</span>點(<span lang="EN-US">2058 x 11</span>),方法是將恆生指數<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年預測每股盈利<span lang="EN-US">2058</span>點(較<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年增長<span lang="EN-US">13%</span>),乘以其過去<span lang="EN-US">10</span>年平均預測市盈率約<span lang="EN-US">11</span>倍。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年度</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">每股盈利(點)</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">增長(<span lang="EN-US">%</span>)</span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> </span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">預測市盈率(倍)</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年(預測)<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>1815<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>12</span>(<span lang="EN-US">21736</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">1815</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年(預測)<span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>2058<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>+13%<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>10.6</span>(<span lang="EN-US">21736</span>÷<span lang="EN-US">2058</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">註:預測市盈率是基於恒生指數<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">13</span>日的收市價<span lang="EN-US">21736</span>點計算。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">經過近三個月來的升勢,港股現時的<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年預測市盈率為<span lang="EN-US">10.6</span>倍,只差<span lang="EN-US">4%</span>便到達均值回歸的估值水平(<span lang="EN-US">11</span>倍預測市盈率),除非未來企業盈利預測獲大幅調高,否則短期再上升的空間也許有限。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">近日,我在一個行山聚會中,與一位朋友談起港股的投資策略。他說錯過了去年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月初的入市機會,雖然當時恆生指數暴跌至<span lang="EN-US">15000-16000</span>點水平,但市場充斥壞消息,令他擔心股市還會下跌,所以即使手持<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>現金,也鼓不起勇氣入市。現時股市大幅反彈,投資氣氛好轉,他心思思想入市,問我有何意見。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我說:股市已經大幅反彈,估值已經從偏低變為合理,價廉物美的優質股很難再找到了。現時才入市,須要小心選擇,看看安全邊際是否足夠,想獲取回報的同時,也要兼顧風險呢!</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com43tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-43119310980394090602023-01-03T17:27:00.007+08:002023-01-03T17:27:58.526+08:00再度減持銀河娛樂(十四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股<span lang="EN-US">票<span lang="EN-US">經</span></span></span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2023-01-03</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">由於中國放寬防疫限制,加上新賭牌塵埃落定,刺激資金追捧澳門博彩股。其中銀河娛樂(<span lang="EN-US">027</span>)的股價從<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">10</span>月底的低位<span lang="EN-US">33.55</span>港元,不經不覺已大幅攀升<span lang="EN-US">63%</span>至今天的最高價<span lang="EN-US">54.7</span>港元。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我重新審視銀河娛樂的估值,計算出<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年的合理值為<span lang="EN-US">49.4</span>港元。基於現價已經稍為高於合理價,我認為股價已經充分反映了投資者預期<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年澳門賭業復常,銀河娛樂<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年的預測經調整<span lang="EN-US">EBITDA</span>有機會重返公司疫情前三年(<span lang="EN-US">2017</span>至<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年)的平均水平,我趁機今天於<span lang="EN-US">53.8</span>港元減持部分持股。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">回報率方面,以沽出價<span lang="EN-US">53.8</span>港元計算,較我於<span lang="EN-US">2021</span>年<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月初的買入價<span lang="EN-US">42.4</span>港元高出<span lang="EN-US">27%</span>,加上期間收取的股息<span lang="EN-US">0.3</span>港元,一年的總回報率為<span lang="EN-US">28%</span>。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">銀娛估值的計算方法:首先計算<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年的合理價,然後折現到<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">發行股數<span lang="EN-US"> = 43.62</span>億(資料來源:<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年中報)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">少數股東權益<span lang="EN-US"> = 6</span>億港元(資料來源:<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年中報)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">現金<span lang="EN-US">+</span>流動投資<span lang="EN-US"> = 225</span>億港元(資料來源<span lang="EN-US">:
2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月底業績)</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">銀行負債<span lang="EN-US"> = 32</span>億港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">淨現金<span lang="EN-US"> = 193</span>億港元(<span lang="EN-US">225 - 32</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">銀娛<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年的合理價:</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我假設銀娛<span lang="EN-US">2024</span>年的經調整預測<span lang="EN-US">EBITDA</span>相當於疫情前三年(<span lang="EN-US">2017</span>至<span lang="EN-US">2019</span>年)的平均值,即是<span lang="EN-US">158.3</span>億港元〔(<span lang="EN-US">141.5 + 168.6 + 164.8</span>)÷<span lang="EN-US">3</span>〕。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2024</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年合理企業價值<span lang="EN-US"> = 疫情前七年</span>平均預測企業價值倍數<span lang="EN-US"> x 2024</span>年經調整預測<span lang="EN-US">EBITDA</span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>=
13.8 x 158.3<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>=
218</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4.5</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2024</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年合理市值<span lang="EN-US"> = 2024</span>年合理企業價值 – 少數股東權益–
淨負債</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>= 2184.5– 6.2 + 193</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(由於銀娛實際上持有淨現金,所以「<span lang="EN-US">- </span>淨負債」變成正數)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>= 2371.3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">億港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2024</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年合理價<span lang="EN-US"> = 2024</span>年合理市值 ÷ 發行股數</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 2371.3 </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷ <span lang="EN-US">43.62<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>= 54.4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></o:p></span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">銀娛<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年的合理價:</span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">202</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年合理價 <span lang="EN-US">= </span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">54.4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">貼現率<span lang="EN-US"> = 10%</span>(假設)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年合理價<span lang="EN-US"> = 2024</span>年合理價 ÷(<span lang="EN-US">1 + </span>貼現率)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>= 54.4 </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">÷(<span lang="EN-US">1+10%</span>)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>= 49.4</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">沽出價(<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月<span lang="EN-US">3</span>日)<span lang="EN-US">= 53.8</span>港元</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">沽出價<span lang="EN-US">/2023</span>年合理價<span lang="EN-US"> = 53.8 </span>÷ <span lang="EN-US">4</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">9.4</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 23.65pt; mso-char-indent-count: 7.01; mso-para-margin-left: 1.97gd; text-align: justify; text-indent: 84.2pt; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">=
</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">1.09</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">倍</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-74395496432369359882022-12-31T14:11:00.001+08:002022-12-31T14:11:39.642+08:00熊市的洗禮<p><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2022-12-31<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">記得在十月初的時候</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">曾跟一位學員對話,當中有一些啟發,想跟網友分享。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">學員:「這兩年股市大幅下挫,讓我大開眼界,不過也是個好經驗。你投資二十多年,是否曾經歷過這樣的大跌市?」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我:「當然經歷過,例如<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年金融海嘯。」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">學員:「我投資的這八年多,未曾經歷像這次的大熊市,完全感覺到之前所學的價值投資理念<span lang="EN-US">------</span>資產配置、安全邊際、能力圈等是多麽的重要。」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我:「對的,在市場氣氛熾熱的時候,這幾點往往被投資者忽略。今次經歷過熊市的洗禮後,這幾點會更深刻,也是一個值得緊記的經驗。」</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2022</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年即將過去,投資者又是時候總結經驗並裝備自己,迎接<span lang="EN-US">2023</span>年的機遇和挑戰。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">順帶一提</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">我</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">在</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">活道教育中心將會於</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">上半年</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">舉辦「</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2023</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">年上半年每月投資理財班<span lang="EN-US">------</span>股票價值投資法」<span lang="EN-US">Zoom</span>直播班,有興趣的網友不妨留意</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">課程的內容主要是教授價值投資背後的邏輯思維(估值和安全邊際)、如何做好資產配置及如何運用不同行業上市公司最新的財務報表去推算它們的合理價值。謝謝大家的支持</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">!</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">報名及查詢:<a href="https://www.livingword.edu.hk/2022/10/%e9%99%b3%e8%82%87%e8%b3%a2-%e9%8d%be%e8%a8%98-%e6%9d%8e%e6%85%a7%e7%be%a4-%e6%af%8f%e6%9c%88-%e9%9a%94%e6%9c%88%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%90%86%e8%b2%a1%e8%ac%9b%e5%ba%a7-2023%e5%b9%b4%e4%b8%8a/">活道教育中心</a></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">電郵:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="mailto:info@livingword.edu.hk">info@livingword.edu.hk</a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">電話:5515 <span lang="EN-US"> 5010<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">網頁:</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="http://www.livingword.edu.hk/"><span style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-TW;">www.livingword.edu.hk</span></a></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-61105095154669276602022-12-27T09:49:00.006+08:002022-12-27T09:49:42.201+08:00選股不計難度分<p> <b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2022-12-2</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">7<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">有一日,偶然瞥見電視台播放某個歌唱比賽節目,記者訪問其中一位評判,在選歌方面有哪些建議可以給予參賽者,評判回答:「千萬不要向高難度挑戰,因為難度是不計分數的,不要選一些超越自己能力的歌曲,避免駕馭不來犯錯被扣分,應該選自己最擅長唱的歌曲類別,用感情去唱,像講故事般去感動聽眾,引發共鳴便較容易取分。」在旁邊另外一位評判十分認同,並加上一句:不要選「自殺歌」,即是很難唱得好的歌。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我認為選股亦有點相似,也是沒有難度分的。在選股的過程中,究竟哪些是高難度、容易犯錯的動作?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我想到以下幾種情況:</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(一)沾手一些超出自己能力圈範圍可以分析的行業或公司。以我為例,自問沒有能力分析生物科技股、化工股、醫藥股</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">航運股及商品股等,所以並不會沾手它們的股票,避免犯錯。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(二)揀選一些商業模式與公司結構太過複雜、關連交易太多、財務報表不容易看得懂的公司。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="tab-stops: 38.2pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(三)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">單憑看圖表去捕捉莊家股的意圖,期望搭順風車。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(四)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">投資於欠缺企業管治、大股東經常利用財技要小股東吃虧的公司。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(五)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">試圖在過度競爭的紅海、夕陽行業或政府打壓的板塊中尋找勝利者。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(六)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">跟風炒賣沒有長期往績可尋、只有美麗故事的明星股。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">(七)投資於盈利飄忽</span></b><b><span style="font-family: SimSun;">、</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">不容易預測的公司,又或規模太小、財務狀況欠佳的公司。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(八)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">買入估值已經偏高的股票,期望有別人接火棒,短期以更高的價格賣出。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">總括而言,揀股不會計算難度分,所以在選股的過程中,與其冒險挑選容易失誤的高難度股,不如穩打穩紥,選擇一些業務或商業模式較為簡單、兼且具備良好企業管治及寬闊護城河的公司,這樣勝算更高。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-77129697075045044772022-12-18T13:55:00.000+08:002022-12-18T13:55:08.969+08:00價值投資不會吃虧<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a> </span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2022-</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">12</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">-1</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">8<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">不論是大升市或大跌市,價值投資也許都會被人批評。在股市熾熱、牛氣沖天的時候,假如價值投資者拒絕高追,甚至高位減持,便會被人取笑過於保守,錯過賺大錢的機會。相反,在大跌市的時候,價值投資者分段趁低吸納,卻會被人譏諷買得太早,越買越蝕。<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">價值投資者以上的兩個行為短期看似吃虧,俗稱「蝕底」,簡直像個傻瓜,但想深一層</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">其實是合算的,可謂「除笨有精」,只要跟著價值走,嚴守紀律,往往都能笑到最後。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">價值投資既可以減少最終泡沫爆破、股市大幅下挫的衝擊,也可以把握機會,以低於價值的價格買入優質股,靜待價格回歸合理的水平而獲利。試想想:假如投資者沒有在大升市時候採取保守的投資策略,哪來資金待熊市的時候低價買貨?大跌市的時候不進取一些以便宜的價格增持心儀的優質股,難道要等到股價持續上升、牛市氣氛熾熱、人人都看好的時候才入市?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">根據我多年投資港股的經驗,我相信股市是有周期的,牛市和熊市總是交替出現的。在大升市的時候須要保持警惕,伺機減持股票的比重;相反,大跌市的時候應該保持冷靜,伺機增持股票的比重</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">這是我應對股市大幅波動的投資原則和策略,務求盡量達到「低買高賣」的獲利成果。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">當然,要在極度樂觀、大部分投資者都追捧股票的泡沫過程中減持股票,或者在極度悲觀、大部分投資者都不敢入市,甚至止蝕離場的情況下增持股票,都是反人性的行為,並不容易做到。我還是強調,逆向投資者或價值投資者須要具備良好的心理質素,並對公司的基本面和估值具有充份的了解和認識及耐性,嚴守紀律,才可以克服內心的貪婪和恐懼。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-12145839364848831312022-11-26T13:42:00.001+08:002022-11-26T13:42:02.606+08:00下調領展RNAV(四)<p><b style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌分類:<span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/iam-zhongji/index?l=f&id=4" target="_parent"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #747147; text-decoration-line: none;"><span lang="EN-US">股票經</span></span></a></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">網誌日期:<span lang="EN-US">2022-11-26<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">一般來說</span></b><b><span style="font-family: SimSun;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">息口上升令資本化率趨升,對資產價格及地產股的重估資產淨值(<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>)構成壓力。究竟它的影響有多大</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">?<span></span></span></b></p><a name='more'></a><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">我嘗試採用領展房產基金(<span lang="EN-US">823</span>)兩個星期前(<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">9</span>日)公佈截至今年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月底止中期業績的財務數據,評估一下資本化率上升對其<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>的影響。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">領展於<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">9</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>日的基金單位持有人應佔資產淨值為<span lang="EN-US">1706</span>億港元,除以已發行基金單位數量<span lang="EN-US">21.09</span>億,得出每基金單位應佔資產淨值(<span lang="EN-US">Book NAV</span>)<span lang="EN-US">80.86</span>港元,較<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">3</span>月底的<span lang="EN-US">77.1</span>港元上升了<span lang="EN-US">4.9%</span>。扣除中期分派<span lang="EN-US">1.555</span>港元後(已於<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">21</span>日除淨),每基金單位應佔資產淨值為<span lang="EN-US">79.3</span>港元。領展昨天(<span lang="EN-US">2022</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">25</span>日)的基金單位價格為<span lang="EN-US">51.85</span>港元,相當於市賬率(基金單位價格 ÷ 每基金單位應佔資產淨值)(<span lang="EN-US">P/B</span>)<span lang="EN-US">0.65</span>倍(<span lang="EN-US">51.85 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 79.3</span>),遠低於其過去十年市賬率的中位數<span lang="EN-US">1</span>倍。估值看似偏低</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">,</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">但實情是否這麽簡單</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">領展中期物業收入淨額按年增長<span lang="EN-US">4.5%</span>至<span lang="EN-US">45.87</span>億港元,年化為<span lang="EN-US">91.74</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">億港元。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">把年化淨租金收入,除以已落成投資物業估值<span lang="EN-US">2227</span>億港元,得出其淨租金回報率為<span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span>(<span lang="EN-US">91.74 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 2227</span>),這個數字大概等於領展所有收租物業的加權平均資本化率。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">投資者須要思考的問題是:<span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span>的資本化率是否足夠?領展的投資物業估值是否被高估了或含有「水份」?</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">參考現時被視為無風險回報的美國十年期政府債券孳息率約<span lang="EN-US">3.7%</span>,加上地產投資的風險溢價,<span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span>的資本化率似乎有點偏低</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">假設把資本化率提高<span lang="EN-US">1%</span>(投資者要求的淨租金回報率從<span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span>上升至<span lang="EN-US">5.1%</span>),則投資物業的估值(每年淨租金收入÷資本化率)便會下調<span lang="EN-US">19.6%</span></span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">即是說,領展已落成投資物業組合的估值及應佔資產淨值均將會減少<span lang="EN-US">437</span>億港元(<span lang="EN-US">2227 x 19.6%</span>),令重估資產淨值</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">RNAV</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">)</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">變成<span lang="EN-US">1269</span>億港元(<span lang="EN-US">1706 - 437</span>),較賬面資產淨值<span lang="EN-US">1706</span>億港元減少<span lang="EN-US">25.6%</span>。每股<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>為<span lang="EN-US">60.17</span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">1269 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 21.09</span>),再扣除中期分派<span lang="EN-US">1.5</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">55</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">港元,得出經調整每股<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>為<span lang="EN-US">58.61</span>港元。現時領展基金單位價格<span lang="EN-US">51.85</span>港元,市價相對每基金單位重估資產淨值(<span lang="EN-US">P/RNAV</span>)為<span lang="EN-US">0.88</span>倍(<span lang="EN-US">51.85 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 58.61</span>)</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-fareast;">。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">如此類推,假設把資本化率提高<span lang="EN-US">2%</span>(從<span lang="EN-US">4.1%</span>上升至<span lang="EN-US">6.1%</span>),則投資物業的估值便會下調<span lang="EN-US">32.8%</span>。領展已落成投資物業組合的估值及應佔資產淨值均將會減少<span lang="EN-US">73</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">億港元(<span lang="EN-US">2227 x 32.8%</span>),令重估資產淨值變成只有<span lang="EN-US">975</span>億港元(<span lang="EN-US">1706 - 73</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">1</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">),較賬面資產淨值<span lang="EN-US">1706</span>億港元減少<span lang="EN-US">42.8%</span>。每股<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>為<span lang="EN-US">46.23</span>港元(<span lang="EN-US">975 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 21.09</span>),再扣除中期分派<span lang="EN-US">1.5</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun;">55</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">港元,得出經調整每股<span lang="EN-US">RNAV</span>為<span lang="EN-US">44.67</span>港元,市價相對每基金單位重估資產淨值(<span lang="EN-US">P/RNAV</span>)為<span lang="EN-US">1.16</span>倍(<span lang="EN-US">51.85 </span>÷<span lang="EN-US"> 44.67</span>)。</span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";"><o:p> </o:p></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">總的來說,從以上兩個假設可以看到,領展現價(<span lang="EN-US">51.85</span>港元)已經反映了大概<span lang="EN-US">1</span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: SimSun;">%</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif";">至<span lang="EN-US">2%</span>的資本化率上調。除非未來息口持續大幅飆升或領展的租金收入大幅下跌,否則投資領展的風險應該不大,畢竟其年化股息回報率達<span lang="EN-US">6%</span>〔(<span lang="EN-US">1.56 x2</span>)÷<span lang="EN-US"> 51.85</span>〕。</span></b></p>股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.com25