tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post8954946808490494166..comments2024-03-10T11:10:02.660+08:00Comments on 股壇老兵鍾記 長勝之道: 吉利汽車估值稍為偏低(二)股壇老兵鍾記http://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-42134078903603894902019-01-08T13:08:34.627+08:002019-01-08T13:08:34.627+08:00匿名兄:吉利剛公佈2018年12月銷售量只有93,333輛,同比大跌39%,遠差過市場預期,管理層更...匿名兄:吉利剛公佈2018年12月銷售量只有93,333輛,同比大跌39%,遠差過市場預期,管理層更預期2019年的銷售目標也只有151萬輛,大概跟2018年持平,分析員勢必調低公司未來的盈利預測。由於股價已經大跌,投資者須要思考目前的股價(10.1港元)和估值是否已經充份反映了壞消息。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-27632439194920134402019-01-08T12:38:15.664+08:002019-01-08T12:38:15.664+08:00鍾sir,近排為何跌得這樣利害?已經從你9月份所說的$19下跌至$10.x ,下跌了接近5成。你認為...鍾sir,近排為何跌得這樣利害?已經從你9月份所說的$19下跌至$10.x ,下跌了接近5成。你認為現價值得入嗎?Jasonlukhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06697778747152503400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-53980801288144154702018-12-04T14:55:44.012+08:002018-12-04T14:55:44.012+08:00匿名兄:明年三月,當吉利公佈2018年全年業績後,投資者的焦點將會放在公司2019年的盈利預測,到時...匿名兄:明年三月,當吉利公佈2018年全年業績後,投資者的焦點將會放在公司2019年的盈利預測,到時便應該用2019年的預測EPS去計算估值。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-19480952932198460162018-12-04T14:53:34.629+08:002018-12-04T14:53:34.629+08:00匿名兄:對的。匿名兄:對的。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-14273264637235854422018-12-03T18:50:52.683+08:002018-12-03T18:50:52.683+08:00鍾sir,路透最新綜合分析員預測,吉利2018EPS 係1.748港元乘10.8倍,咁最新合理價是不...鍾sir,路透最新綜合分析員預測,吉利2018EPS 係1.748港元乘10.8倍,咁最新合理價是不是18.88元,定現時應該用2019預測EPS,兩數相差都幾大,應該用邊個較合理?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-24777616799844105622018-12-03T15:22:57.264+08:002018-12-03T15:22:57.264+08:00鍾sir,吉利合理價為19.5元,咁現價應該有約20%安全邊際了,請問對不對?
謝謝!鍾sir,吉利合理價為19.5元,咁現價應該有約20%安全邊際了,請問對不對?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-65949156058453599392018-09-19T12:18:59.036+08:002018-09-19T12:18:59.036+08:00抱歉,我沒有看過摩根士丹利的報告。吉利的股價已經大幅下挫,投資者應該思考現價的估值是否已經反映了不少...抱歉,我沒有看過摩根士丹利的報告。吉利的股價已經大幅下挫,投資者應該思考現價的估值是否已經反映了不少的壞消息。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-25959022336593201272018-09-19T12:16:14.390+08:002018-09-19T12:16:14.390+08:00謝謝RC兄的補充。保修撥備是汽車製造商根據過去保修期間壞車率和維修費用的經驗而推算。假如保修撥備不足...謝謝RC兄的補充。保修撥備是汽車製造商根據過去保修期間壞車率和維修費用的經驗而推算。假如保修撥備不足夠的話,將會影響未來的維修費用和盈利。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-48713036314533339182018-09-19T10:49:15.398+08:002018-09-19T10:49:15.398+08:00鍾sir,你點睇摩根士丹利,因存貨及定價問題唱淡吉行?
謝謝!鍾sir,你點睇摩根士丹利,因存貨及定價問題唱淡吉行?<br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-88311136663626226212018-09-17T11:40:35.199+08:002018-09-17T11:40:35.199+08:00Management is responsible to review the carrying v...Management is responsible to review the carrying value of intangibles and how much to provide for warranty. A lot of it is leave to self discipline. Auditors have little influence (how much does auditor know about car technology anyway!?) Just by reviewing Geely and GAC F/S , it is easy to tell the difference in management style and who is more trustworthy. <br /><br />Auditor on the other hand can make judgement on what item and details to disclose . In this case PWC is clearly more thorough and transparent in their work than GT. <br /><br />Even 1% warranty accrued is too little i.e. a provision of RMB1500 for a RMB150k car? Really? Does that cover anything at all? RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-65510336021896918352018-09-16T10:09:56.503+08:002018-09-16T10:09:56.503+08:00AC兄的問題很好。
廣汽的保修費用(warranty expense)於2017年和2016年分別...AC兄的問題很好。<br /><br />廣汽的保修費用(warranty expense)於2017年和2016年分別是10.1億元人民幣和4.3億元人民幣,佔銷售收入的1.4%和0.9%。於2017年底,廣汽的保修撥備(warranty provisions)為9.1億元人民幣。在吉利的財務報表,我看不到這些數字。到底是因為吉利的保修索賠太少而沒有披露這些數字,還是有別的原因,我不太清楚。假設吉利要為其銷售的產品作出1%的保修費用(類似廣汽),則其2017年盈利將會減少約7%。 <br />股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-1962107050739193092018-09-16T09:47:58.746+08:002018-09-16T09:47:58.746+08:00補充一點,其實廣汽也是把所有開發成本資本化後分期以攤銷(Amortisaiton)入賬,年期由5至1...補充一點,其實廣汽也是把所有開發成本資本化後分期以攤銷(Amortisaiton)入賬,年期由5至10年不等,而吉利的攤銷年期則由3至10年不等。值得留意的是,廣汽於2017年及2016年分別為其開發成本作出10.8億元人民幣及5.9億元人民幣的減值(impairment charge),令盈利受損。這個可能是較保守的會計處理,也可能是開發的產品沒有達到預期效益。由於大量的減值,令開發成本這項無形資產於2017年底時減至只有49億元人民幣,遠低於吉利的105億元人民幣。<br /><br />相對於廣汽,吉利投放更多資源在產品開發。若以每年開發成本(Development expense)佔銷售收入計算,吉利和廣汽於2017年分別為4.3%和3.5%,2016年分別為4.9%和4%。<br />股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-42189461106469834022018-09-14T23:05:47.837+08:002018-09-14T23:05:47.837+08:00Chung Sir, their accounting seems a bit fishy. I g...Chung Sir, their accounting seems a bit fishy. I give you another challenge. Compare the warranty provision of Geely and GAC... RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-38028467557537941092018-09-14T14:28:42.741+08:002018-09-14T14:28:42.741+08:00RC兄:雖然Grant Thornton不是Big 4,但也是top second-tier的核數師...RC兄:雖然Grant Thornton不是Big 4,但也是top second-tier的核數師,有一定的可靠性。<br />由於吉利著重研發R&D,所以開發成本(Development Cost)近年大幅增長,2017年開發成本高達39億元人民幣,同比增長49%,佔收入的4.3%(2016年佔4.9%)。<br />RC兄說得對,假如把所有開發成本當作支出入賬,而不是資本化後分期以攤銷(Amortisaiton)入賬,我計算過會令吉利2017年的股東應佔利潤減少約22%(從106億元人民幣,減少至83億元人民幣)。<br />股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-425211734191229032018-09-14T12:55:33.810+08:002018-09-14T12:55:33.810+08:00身為價值投資者,我總是喜歡在股市下跌的時候分段增持優質股票的比重,越跌越買,因為可以買得便宜。試想想...身為價值投資者,我總是喜歡在股市下跌的時候分段增持優質股票的比重,越跌越買,因為可以買得便宜。試想想,假如沒有壞消息,股價會大跌嗎?當別人恐懼的時候,我們要思考股價大跌後的估值,到底反映了多少的壞消息。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-78381555955472838452018-09-14T12:45:02.613+08:002018-09-14T12:45:02.613+08:00同意長遠而言,新能源汽車行業還有很大的增長空間,龍頭股比亞迪值得長期關注。除了銷售量之外,定價、利潤...同意長遠而言,新能源汽車行業還有很大的增長空間,龍頭股比亞迪值得長期關注。除了銷售量之外,定價、利潤率和估值也要考慮。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-91086426625331870492018-09-14T12:37:07.932+08:002018-09-14T12:37:07.932+08:00假如股價長時間低迷(以年計),的確會拉低歷史平均預測市盈率,估值可能需要下調,反映公司的基本面也許發...假如股價長時間低迷(以年計),的確會拉低歷史平均預測市盈率,估值可能需要下調,反映公司的基本面也許發生了變化。股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-21510682044418080892018-09-12T19:34:21.140+08:002018-09-12T19:34:21.140+08:00Before even going to the financial, always check w...Before even going to the financial, always check who is the auditor. And 175 auditor is GT, it's not too bad but it does raise some flags. <br /><br />Margin is very high for an auto manufacturer. I google a bit more and found the answer. They capitalized R&D expenses very aggressively. 2017 R&D cost was 4B, but only amortized 1B. (Now compared to GAC, the R&D cost and amortization is more aligned.) 175 has been playing this game for years! The cost was parked in B/S. Actually their intangible asset (R&D) was a staggering 20% of total asset! Compared to only 5% in GAC. If we normalized 175 gross profit by expensing R&D , the Gross Profit margin drops to 16% , inline with GAC which I think make sense. Forward EPS would be hkd1.24, 30% less than stated. <br /><br />GAC is probably a better buy here considering the more conservative accounting. I simply can't trust 175 numbers. RChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14228946004395947595noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-5291488024830509112018-09-12T19:10:01.104+08:002018-09-12T19:10:01.104+08:00鍾sir,早前你買入部份股票,而在股市週期向下,一般都會有各樣的壞消息,經濟數據差等等,你怕唔怕差的...鍾sir,早前你買入部份股票,而在股市週期向下,一般都會有各樣的壞消息,經濟數據差等等,你怕唔怕差的經濟環境令企業的盈利減少,使你之前買入股票的合理價值下降,令你安全邊際減少或沒有呢?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-26856387823464183792018-09-12T15:18:31.289+08:002018-09-12T15:18:31.289+08:00鍾sir,中汽協發表8月統計數據有幾點值得留意:
汽車產銷按年只有單位數增長,而且增長再減慢,反應...鍾sir,中汽協發表8月統計數據有幾點值得留意:<br /><br />汽車產銷按年只有單位數增長,而且增長再減慢,反應汽車增長放緩,<br /><br />但在新能源汽車方面,產銷按年有70%,80%的增長,而且數量只佔汽車產銷很小百分比,可見新能源汽車仲有很大增長空間,而且增長強勁<br /><br />而吉利0175,比亞迪1211,在產銷方面增長依然強勁,有幾十百分比增加,大幅跑贏同業(廣汽只有幾個百分點增長),而比亞迪及吉利在新能源汽車比較領先,這兩間企業相當有潛力。<br /><br />請問你點睇?仲有沒有啲咩因素要考慮?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-6582811592720249302018-09-12T10:44:54.798+08:002018-09-12T10:44:54.798+08:00鍾sir,預測市盈率會用來估值,但市盈率會受股價影響,如果股價下跌很多及很耐,咁個歷史平均預測市盈率...鍾sir,預測市盈率會用來估值,但市盈率會受股價影響,如果股價下跌很多及很耐,咁個歷史平均預測市盈率會拉低,咁個合理價值便減少,估值上會不會容易受股價影響呢?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-32113319146019090732018-09-06T08:37:29.975+08:002018-09-06T08:37:29.975+08:00匿名兄所言甚是,加油!匿名兄所言甚是,加油!股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-68587800581621795582018-09-06T08:36:42.370+08:002018-09-06T08:36:42.370+08:00除了收費Bloomberg機外,免費的路透社網站也可以看到綜合分析員對個股的盈利預測。
https:...除了收費Bloomberg機外,免費的路透社網站也可以看到綜合分析員對個股的盈利預測。<br />https://cn.reuters.com/investing/stocks/estimates/0175.HK<br /><br />至於分析員對企業基本面的看法,不妨上網google一下。不少財經網站,比如經濟通、AAstock、雪球等,都有個股的相關新聞。<br />股壇老兵鍾記https://www.blogger.com/profile/07093066867147384620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-83589048867259348562018-09-06T00:05:20.119+08:002018-09-06T00:05:20.119+08:00鍾sir,估值的而且確不是一成不變,除了考慮歷史平均預測市盈率,仲要因應行業,公司的基本面及前景作出...鍾sir,估值的而且確不是一成不變,除了考慮歷史平均預測市盈率,仲要因應行業,公司的基本面及前景作出相應調整,需要很好的經驗同洞察力。<br />另外,買入時仲要考慮個別股份的風險程度而定出適合的安全邊際,真的很大學問!<br /><br />期待你出更多的個股分析,可以學到好多嘢!<br /><br />謝謝!<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491809123398979739.post-18904346846456636372018-09-05T22:27:43.984+08:002018-09-05T22:27:43.984+08:00鍾sir,請問可以係邊到睇到分析員的盈利預測,同分析員對企業基本面的看法?
謝謝!鍾sir,請問可以係邊到睇到分析員的盈利預測,同分析員對企業基本面的看法?<br /><br />謝謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com